The postponement of Lebanon's parliamentary elections from May 2026 to 2028, enacted amid escalation in the 2026 Lebanon war, has introduced major uncertainty into the contest for the largest bloc in the 128-seat parliament. Traders assign the highest probability (2.3%) to the Amal Movement, reflecting its established Shiite base and alliance structures, while all other listed parties—including Lebanese Forces, Free Patriotic Movement, and smaller factions—trade below 0.3% amid a fragmented field. Primary drivers include the confessional electoral system that allocates seats by sect, unresolved questions over diaspora voting rules, the splintering of reformist "Change" MPs from 2022, and the need for cross-sectarian coalitions to secure a plurality. Recent presidential and prime ministerial transitions have not yet produced clear momentum for any single list or bloc, leaving outcomes dependent on future security developments, alliance negotiations, and voter mobilization in a polarized environment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於希望運動（Amal） 2.3%
伊斯蘭慈善工程協會（ICPA） <1%
黎巴嫩力量（LF） <1%
國家對話黨（NDP） <1%
$666,071 交易量
$666,071 交易量
2026-05-31
希望運動（Amal）
2%
伊斯蘭慈善工程協會（ICPA）
<1%
黎巴嫩力量（LF）
<1%
國家對話黨（NDP）
<1%
自由愛國運動（FPM）
<1%
塔卡多姆黨
<1%
Lana－社會民主黨（Lana）
<1%
瓦塔尼聯盟（Watani）
<1%
真主黨（Hezb）
<1%
卡塔埃布黨（Kataeb）
<1%
馬拉達運動（MM）
<1%
伊斯蘭團體（IG）
<1%
黎巴嫩阿拉伯社會主義復興黨（巴斯黨）
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
<1%
進步社會黨（PSP）
<1%
獨立運動（IM）
<1%
全國自由黨（NLP）
<1%
馬達黨（Mada）
<1%
尊嚴運動（DM）
<1%
ReLebanon
<1%
亞美尼亞革命聯盟（ARF）
<1%
聯合黨（UP）
<1%
人民納賽爾主義組織（PNO）
<1%
希望運動（Amal） 2.3%
伊斯蘭慈善工程協會（ICPA） <1%
黎巴嫩力量（LF） <1%
國家對話黨（NDP） <1%
$666,071 交易量
$666,071 交易量
2026-05-31
希望運動（Amal）
$63,834 交易量
2%
伊斯蘭慈善工程協會（ICPA）
$9,181 交易量
<1%
黎巴嫩力量（LF）
$167,737 交易量
<1%
國家對話黨（NDP）
$46,764 交易量
<1%
自由愛國運動（FPM）
$79,513 交易量
<1%
塔卡多姆黨
$11,771 交易量
<1%
Lana－社會民主黨（Lana）
$13,761 交易量
<1%
瓦塔尼聯盟（Watani）
$7,539 交易量
<1%
真主黨（Hezb）
$52,900 交易量
<1%
卡塔埃布黨（Kataeb）
$7,370 交易量
<1%
馬拉達運動（MM）
$8,683 交易量
<1%
伊斯蘭團體（IG）
$8,631 交易量
<1%
黎巴嫩阿拉伯社會主義復興黨（巴斯黨）
$10,710 交易量
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
$9,477 交易量
<1%
進步社會黨（PSP）
$55,015 交易量
<1%
獨立運動（IM）
$8,894 交易量
<1%
全國自由黨（NLP）
$9,599 交易量
<1%
馬達黨（Mada）
$28,113 交易量
<1%
尊嚴運動（DM）
$29,195 交易量
<1%
ReLebanon
$9,808 交易量
<1%
亞美尼亞革命聯盟（ARF）
$10,552 交易量
<1%
聯合黨（UP）
$7,759 交易量
<1%
人民納賽爾主義組織（PNO）
$9,264 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.The postponement of Lebanon's parliamentary elections from May 2026 to 2028, enacted amid escalation in the 2026 Lebanon war, has introduced major uncertainty into the contest for the largest bloc in the 128-seat parliament. Traders assign the highest probability (2.3%) to the Amal Movement, reflecting its established Shiite base and alliance structures, while all other listed parties—including Lebanese Forces, Free Patriotic Movement, and smaller factions—trade below 0.3% amid a fragmented field. Primary drivers include the confessional electoral system that allocates seats by sect, unresolved questions over diaspora voting rules, the splintering of reformist "Change" MPs from 2022, and the need for cross-sectarian coalitions to secure a plurality. Recent presidential and prime ministerial transitions have not yet produced clear momentum for any single list or bloc, leaving outcomes dependent on future security developments, alliance negotiations, and voter mobilization in a polarized environment.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
市場開放時間： Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
交易量
$666,071結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.The postponement of Lebanon's parliamentary elections from May 2026 to 2028, enacted amid escalation in the 2026 Lebanon war, has introduced major uncertainty into the contest for the largest bloc in the 128-seat parliament. Traders assign the highest probability (2.3%) to the Amal Movement, reflecting its established Shiite base and alliance structures, while all other listed parties—including Lebanese Forces, Free Patriotic Movement, and smaller factions—trade below 0.3% amid a fragmented field. Primary drivers include the confessional electoral system that allocates seats by sect, unresolved questions over diaspora voting rules, the splintering of reformist "Change" MPs from 2022, and the need for cross-sectarian coalitions to secure a plurality. Recent presidential and prime ministerial transitions have not yet produced clear momentum for any single list or bloc, leaving outcomes dependent on future security developments, alliance negotiations, and voter mobilization in a polarized environment.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
交易量
$666,071結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The postponement of Lebanon's parliamentary elections from May 2026 to 2028, enacted amid escalation in the 2026 Lebanon war, has introduced major uncertainty into the contest for the largest bloc in the 128-seat parliament. Traders assign the highest probability (2.3%) to the Amal Movement, reflecting its established Shiite base and alliance structures, while all other listed parties—including Lebanese Forces, Free Patriotic Movement, and smaller factions—trade below 0.3% amid a fragmented field. Primary drivers include the confessional electoral system that allocates seats by sect, unresolved questions over diaspora voting rules, the splintering of reformist "Change" MPs from 2022, and the need for cross-sectarian coalitions to secure a plurality. Recent presidential and prime ministerial transitions have not yet produced clear momentum for any single list or bloc, leaving outcomes dependent on future security developments, alliance negotiations, and voter mobilization in a polarized environment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions