Lebanon's confessional power-sharing system and proportional representation electoral law produce a highly fragmented parliament, with no single party positioned to secure a majority outright, which keeps implied probabilities low across all listed contenders. The March 2026 parliamentary decision to postpone the May vote by two years amid renewed Israel-Hezbollah hostilities has further delayed campaigning and alliance formation, reinforcing uncertainty. Amal Movement holds the narrow lead through its established Shia constituency and coordination with Hezbollah allies, while Lebanese Forces draws support from Christian voters seeking opposition to the Iran-aligned axis. Other groups remain marginal due to limited nationwide reach. Consolidation behind any outcome would require new cross-sectarian coalitions, clearer diaspora voting rules, or shifts in post-conflict priorities that could realign Sunni or independent blocs before the rescheduled 2028 contest.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於希望運動（Amal） 7.0%
黎巴嫩力量（LF） 5.2%
塔卡多姆黨 3.7%
ReLebanon 3.0%
$532,450 交易量
$532,450 交易量
2026-05-31
希望運動（Amal）
7%
黎巴嫩力量（LF）
5%
塔卡多姆黨
4%
ReLebanon
3%
真主黨（Hezb）
3%
馬拉達運動（MM）
3%
伊斯蘭慈善工程協會（ICPA）
2%
瓦塔尼聯盟（Watani）
2%
自由愛國運動（FPM）
2%
卡塔埃布黨（Kataeb）
1%
聯合黨（UP）
1%
全國自由黨（NLP）
1%
人民納賽爾主義組織（PNO）
1%
國家對話黨（NDP）
<1%
伊斯蘭團體（IG）
<1%
亞美尼亞革命聯盟（ARF）
<1%
馬達黨（Mada）
<1%
Lana－社會民主黨（Lana）
<1%
黎巴嫩阿拉伯社會主義復興黨（巴斯黨）
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
<1%
進步社會黨（PSP）
<1%
獨立運動（IM）
<1%
尊嚴運動（DM）
<1%
希望運動（Amal） 7.0%
黎巴嫩力量（LF） 5.2%
塔卡多姆黨 3.7%
ReLebanon 3.0%
$532,450 交易量
$532,450 交易量
2026-05-31
希望運動（Amal）
$53,709 交易量
7%
黎巴嫩力量（LF）
$158,091 交易量
5%
塔卡多姆黨
$6,113 交易量
4%
ReLebanon
$3,307 交易量
3%
真主黨（Hezb）
$44,038 交易量
3%
馬拉達運動（MM）
$3,796 交易量
3%
伊斯蘭慈善工程協會（ICPA）
$4,398 交易量
2%
瓦塔尼聯盟（Watani）
$4,686 交易量
2%
自由愛國運動（FPM）
$74,483 交易量
2%
卡塔埃布黨（Kataeb）
$4,126 交易量
1%
聯合黨（UP）
$3,376 交易量
1%
全國自由黨（NLP）
$5,135 交易量
1%
人民納賽爾主義組織（PNO）
$4,584 交易量
1%
國家對話黨（NDP）
$41,888 交易量
<1%
伊斯蘭團體（IG）
$3,585 交易量
<1%
亞美尼亞革命聯盟（ARF）
$5,112 交易量
<1%
馬達黨（Mada）
$24,363 交易量
<1%
Lana－社會民主黨（Lana）
$4,450 交易量
<1%
黎巴嫩阿拉伯社會主義復興黨（巴斯黨）
$6,573 交易量
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
$3,330 交易量
<1%
進步社會黨（PSP）
$47,456 交易量
<1%
獨立運動（IM）
$3,135 交易量
<1%
尊嚴運動（DM）
$22,716 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's confessional power-sharing system and proportional representation electoral law produce a highly fragmented parliament, with no single party positioned to secure a majority outright, which keeps implied probabilities low across all listed contenders. The March 2026 parliamentary decision to postpone the May vote by two years amid renewed Israel-Hezbollah hostilities has further delayed campaigning and alliance formation, reinforcing uncertainty. Amal Movement holds the narrow lead through its established Shia constituency and coordination with Hezbollah allies, while Lebanese Forces draws support from Christian voters seeking opposition to the Iran-aligned axis. Other groups remain marginal due to limited nationwide reach. Consolidation behind any outcome would require new cross-sectarian coalitions, clearer diaspora voting rules, or shifts in post-conflict priorities that could realign Sunni or independent blocs before the rescheduled 2028 contest.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
市場開放時間： Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
交易量
$532,450結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's confessional power-sharing system and proportional representation electoral law produce a highly fragmented parliament, with no single party positioned to secure a majority outright, which keeps implied probabilities low across all listed contenders. The March 2026 parliamentary decision to postpone the May vote by two years amid renewed Israel-Hezbollah hostilities has further delayed campaigning and alliance formation, reinforcing uncertainty. Amal Movement holds the narrow lead through its established Shia constituency and coordination with Hezbollah allies, while Lebanese Forces draws support from Christian voters seeking opposition to the Iran-aligned axis. Other groups remain marginal due to limited nationwide reach. Consolidation behind any outcome would require new cross-sectarian coalitions, clearer diaspora voting rules, or shifts in post-conflict priorities that could realign Sunni or independent blocs before the rescheduled 2028 contest.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
交易量
$532,450結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Lebanon's confessional power-sharing system and proportional representation electoral law produce a highly fragmented parliament, with no single party positioned to secure a majority outright, which keeps implied probabilities low across all listed contenders. The March 2026 parliamentary decision to postpone the May vote by two years amid renewed Israel-Hezbollah hostilities has further delayed campaigning and alliance formation, reinforcing uncertainty. Amal Movement holds the narrow lead through its established Shia constituency and coordination with Hezbollah allies, while Lebanese Forces draws support from Christian voters seeking opposition to the Iran-aligned axis. Other groups remain marginal due to limited nationwide reach. Consolidation behind any outcome would require new cross-sectarian coalitions, clearer diaspora voting rules, or shifts in post-conflict priorities that could realign Sunni or independent blocs before the rescheduled 2028 contest.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions