**Clear skies and light northerly winds are driving efficient nocturnal radiative cooling across Beijing tonight, with official and ensemble forecasts from sources like NOAA-influenced models and local agencies pointing to an overnight low in the 15–18 °C range.** This places the outcome near the market’s leading 14 °C bin (50.5 % implied probability) while leaving meaningful downside risk for colder readings if boundary-layer mixing weakens or if urban heat-island effects are less pronounced at the official station. The near-even split with 11 °C or below (49.5 %) reflects residual model spread in minimum temperature guidance and uncertainty over the precise timing of the daily minimum, typical for late-summer anticyclonic conditions without strong synoptic forcing. Historical September climatology shows similar clear nights often bottoming 1–3 °C below daytime guidance, keeping both bins live until final observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月13日北京最低溫度？
9月13日北京最低溫度？
14°C 99.5%
13°C 20%
12°C 19%
11°C或以下 1.0%
$1,963 交易量
$1,963 交易量
2026-09-13
11°C或以下
否
12°C
否
13°C
否
14°C
是
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C或以上
否
14°C 99.5%
13°C 20%
12°C 19%
11°C或以下 1.0%
$1,963 交易量
$1,963 交易量
2026-09-13
11°C或以下
$43 交易量
否
12°C
$0 交易量
否
13°C
$60 交易量
否
14°C
$359 交易量
是
15°C
$735 交易量
否
16°C
$371 交易量
否
17°C
$295 交易量
否
18°C
$54 交易量
否
19°C
$15 交易量
否
20°C
$15 交易量
否
21°C或以上
$15 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies and light northerly winds are driving efficient nocturnal radiative cooling across Beijing tonight, with official and ensemble forecasts from sources like NOAA-influenced models and local agencies pointing to an overnight low in the 15–18 °C range.** This places the outcome near the market’s leading 14 °C bin (50.5 % implied probability) while leaving meaningful downside risk for colder readings if boundary-layer mixing weakens or if urban heat-island effects are less pronounced at the official station. The near-even split with 11 °C or below (49.5 %) reflects residual model spread in minimum temperature guidance and uncertainty over the precise timing of the daily minimum, typical for late-summer anticyclonic conditions without strong synoptic forcing. Historical September climatology shows similar clear nights often bottoming 1–3 °C below daytime guidance, keeping both bins live until final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$1,963結束日期
2026-09-13市場開放時間
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies and light northerly winds are driving efficient nocturnal radiative cooling across Beijing tonight, with official and ensemble forecasts from sources like NOAA-influenced models and local agencies pointing to an overnight low in the 15–18 °C range.** This places the outcome near the market’s leading 14 °C bin (50.5 % implied probability) while leaving meaningful downside risk for colder readings if boundary-layer mixing weakens or if urban heat-island effects are less pronounced at the official station. The near-even split with 11 °C or below (49.5 %) reflects residual model spread in minimum temperature guidance and uncertainty over the precise timing of the daily minimum, typical for late-summer anticyclonic conditions without strong synoptic forcing. Historical September climatology shows similar clear nights often bottoming 1–3 °C below daytime guidance, keeping both bins live until final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,963結束日期
2026-09-13市場開放時間
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
**Clear skies and light northerly winds are driving efficient nocturnal radiative cooling across Beijing tonight, with official and ensemble forecasts from sources like NOAA-influenced models and local agencies pointing to an overnight low in the 15–18 °C range.** This places the outcome near the market’s leading 14 °C bin (50.5 % implied probability) while leaving meaningful downside risk for colder readings if boundary-layer mixing weakens or if urban heat-island effects are less pronounced at the official station. The near-even split with 11 °C or below (49.5 %) reflects residual model spread in minimum temperature guidance and uncertainty over the precise timing of the daily minimum, typical for late-summer anticyclonic conditions without strong synoptic forcing. Historical September climatology shows similar clear nights often bottoming 1–3 °C below daytime guidance, keeping both bins live until final observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions