Current forecasts from global and regional models, including GFS and ECMWF runs valid for September 15, 2026, indicate Madrid will experience clear skies under a strong high-pressure ridge, with daytime highs reaching 32–36 °C and overnight radiative cooling limited by dry air (dew points near 5–8 °C) and light northeast winds. This setup favors a minimum temperature of 18–20 °C at official stations, consistent with the recent warm anomaly but above the 1991–2020 average low of 15.5 °C. Trader positioning reflects modest uncertainty in exact timing of the nocturnal minimum and microscale urban effects, keeping probabilities spread across the 16–22 °C range while assigning lower weight to extremes that would require rapid model shifts or unforecasted cloud cover.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月15日馬德裏最低氣溫？
9月15日馬德裏最低氣溫？
12°C或以下 85%
22°C或以上 72%
16°C 28%
15°C 22%
最新
最新
2026-09-15
12°C或以下
85%
13°C
13%
14°C
22%
15°C
22%
16°C
28%
17°C
22%
18°C
22%
19°C
21%
20°C
21%
21°C
8%
22°C或以上
72%
12°C或以下 85%
22°C或以上 72%
16°C 28%
15°C 22%
最新
最新
2026-09-15
12°C或以下
$10 交易量
85%
13°C
$10 交易量
13%
14°C
$0 交易量
22%
15°C
$0 交易量
22%
16°C
$0 交易量
28%
17°C
$0 交易量
22%
18°C
$0 交易量
22%
19°C
$0 交易量
21%
20°C
$8 交易量
21%
21°C
$10 交易量
8%
22°C或以上
$10 交易量
72%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from global and regional models, including GFS and ECMWF runs valid for September 15, 2026, indicate Madrid will experience clear skies under a strong high-pressure ridge, with daytime highs reaching 32–36 °C and overnight radiative cooling limited by dry air (dew points near 5–8 °C) and light northeast winds. This setup favors a minimum temperature of 18–20 °C at official stations, consistent with the recent warm anomaly but above the 1991–2020 average low of 15.5 °C. Trader positioning reflects modest uncertainty in exact timing of the nocturnal minimum and microscale urban effects, keeping probabilities spread across the 16–22 °C range while assigning lower weight to extremes that would require rapid model shifts or unforecasted cloud cover.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
交易量
$48結束日期
2026-09-15市場開放時間
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from global and regional models, including GFS and ECMWF runs valid for September 15, 2026, indicate Madrid will experience clear skies under a strong high-pressure ridge, with daytime highs reaching 32–36 °C and overnight radiative cooling limited by dry air (dew points near 5–8 °C) and light northeast winds. This setup favors a minimum temperature of 18–20 °C at official stations, consistent with the recent warm anomaly but above the 1991–2020 average low of 15.5 °C. Trader positioning reflects modest uncertainty in exact timing of the nocturnal minimum and microscale urban effects, keeping probabilities spread across the 16–22 °C range while assigning lower weight to extremes that would require rapid model shifts or unforecasted cloud cover.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$48結束日期
2026-09-15市場開放時間
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETCurrent forecasts from global and regional models, including GFS and ECMWF runs valid for September 15, 2026, indicate Madrid will experience clear skies under a strong high-pressure ridge, with daytime highs reaching 32–36 °C and overnight radiative cooling limited by dry air (dew points near 5–8 °C) and light northeast winds. This setup favors a minimum temperature of 18–20 °C at official stations, consistent with the recent warm anomaly but above the 1991–2020 average low of 15.5 °C. Trader positioning reflects modest uncertainty in exact timing of the nocturnal minimum and microscale urban effects, keeping probabilities spread across the 16–22 °C range while assigning lower weight to extremes that would require rapid model shifts or unforecasted cloud cover.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions