Official National Weather Service forecasts for New York City on August 5, 2026, indicate an overnight minimum near 70–71 °F under a warm, humid air mass with southerly flow and mostly cloudy skies that limit radiational cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading 70–71 °F bin at 63.5 % implied probability, as models show minimal diurnal range and above-average temperatures consistent with the Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal outlook. Recent observations from Central Park ASOS confirm dew points in the low 60s °F and light winds, supporting limited overnight drops. Traders appear to weigh the consensus model guidance heavily, with lower bins (68–69 °F) at just 10.5 % reflecting the low likelihood of a cooler boundary-layer airmass arriving before dawn. Updated model runs tonight will refine the exact minimum before the market resolves.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月5日紐約市的最低溫度？
8月5日紐約市的最低溫度？
70-71°F 64%
72-73°F 24%
68-69°F 12%
74-75°F 6.2%
最新
$11,534 交易量
最新
$11,534 交易量
2026-08-05
華氏57度或以下
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
10%
70-71°F
64%
72-73°F
24%
74-75°F
6%
76°F或以上
<1%
70-71°F 64%
72-73°F 24%
68-69°F 12%
74-75°F 6.2%
最新
$11,534 交易量
最新
$11,534 交易量
2026-08-05
華氏57度或以下
$207 交易量
<1%
58-59°F
$362 交易量
<1%
60-61°F
$361 交易量
<1%
62-63°F
$918 交易量
<1%
64-65°F
$1,150 交易量
<1%
66-67°F
$742 交易量
1%
68-69°F
$1,041 交易量
10%
70-71°F
$1,701 交易量
64%
72-73°F
$475 交易量
24%
74-75°F
$2,819 交易量
6%
76°F或以上
$1,757 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service forecasts for New York City on August 5, 2026, indicate an overnight minimum near 70–71 °F under a warm, humid air mass with southerly flow and mostly cloudy skies that limit radiational cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading 70–71 °F bin at 63.5 % implied probability, as models show minimal diurnal range and above-average temperatures consistent with the Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal outlook. Recent observations from Central Park ASOS confirm dew points in the low 60s °F and light winds, supporting limited overnight drops. Traders appear to weigh the consensus model guidance heavily, with lower bins (68–69 °F) at just 10.5 % reflecting the low likelihood of a cooler boundary-layer airmass arriving before dawn. Updated model runs tonight will refine the exact minimum before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 3, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
交易量
$11,534結束日期
2026-08-05市場開放時間
Aug 3, 2026, 9:30 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service forecasts for New York City on August 5, 2026, indicate an overnight minimum near 70–71 °F under a warm, humid air mass with southerly flow and mostly cloudy skies that limit radiational cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading 70–71 °F bin at 63.5 % implied probability, as models show minimal diurnal range and above-average temperatures consistent with the Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal outlook. Recent observations from Central Park ASOS confirm dew points in the low 60s °F and light winds, supporting limited overnight drops. Traders appear to weigh the consensus model guidance heavily, with lower bins (68–69 °F) at just 10.5 % reflecting the low likelihood of a cooler boundary-layer airmass arriving before dawn. Updated model runs tonight will refine the exact minimum before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$11,534結束日期
2026-08-05市場開放時間
Aug 3, 2026, 9:30 PM ETOfficial National Weather Service forecasts for New York City on August 5, 2026, indicate an overnight minimum near 70–71 °F under a warm, humid air mass with southerly flow and mostly cloudy skies that limit radiational cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading 70–71 °F bin at 63.5 % implied probability, as models show minimal diurnal range and above-average temperatures consistent with the Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal outlook. Recent observations from Central Park ASOS confirm dew points in the low 60s °F and light winds, supporting limited overnight drops. Traders appear to weigh the consensus model guidance heavily, with lower bins (68–69 °F) at just 10.5 % reflecting the low likelihood of a cooler boundary-layer airmass arriving before dawn. Updated model runs tonight will refine the exact minimum before the market resolves.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions