Current short-range forecast models show modest spread in expected overnight radiative cooling for New York City on June 16, keeping the minimum temperature centered near the long-term climatological average of 62–64 °F. Primary drivers include variable low-level moisture, wind speeds under 10 mph, and partial cloud cover that will limit or enhance heat loss after sunset, with National Weather Service guidance indicating a mostly clear to partly cloudy regime. These conditions produce the tightly clustered market probabilities across the 58–65 °F bins, as small shifts in dew-point depression or frontal timing could easily move the observed low by 2–3 °F. Historical June minima at Central Park and LaGuardia exhibit a standard deviation of roughly 4–5 °F, underscoring why traders assign comparable implied odds until the final model runs and local observations arrive.