Traders see 27°C and 28°C as nearly equal favorites for Tokyo’s minimum temperature on August 26 because recent JMA guidance and ensemble forecasts place overnight lows in that narrow range amid lingering summer warmth. Persistent high pressure and above-normal sea-surface temperatures have sustained warm advection and elevated humidity, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling, while urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo add roughly 1–2 °C to baseline readings. Model spread arises mainly from uncertain timing of any late-day showers, which could enhance or suppress cooling by a degree. Historical climatology shows typical late-August minima near 24–25 °C, yet 2026’s above-average pattern supports the current market-implied odds until fresher model runs arrive.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月26日東京的最低溫度？
8月26日東京的最低溫度？
28°C 45%
27°C 44%
26°C 7%
29°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-26
22°C or below
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
2%
25°C
5%
26°C
7%
27°C
44%
28°C
45%
29°C
6%
30°C
5%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
28°C 45%
27°C 44%
26°C 7%
29°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-26
22°C or below
$120 交易量
1%
23°C
$173 交易量
2%
24°C
$128 交易量
2%
25°C
$137 交易量
5%
26°C
$156 交易量
7%
27°C
$442 交易量
44%
28°C
$327 交易量
45%
29°C
$256 交易量
6%
30°C
$89 交易量
5%
31°C
$251 交易量
<1%
32°C or higher
$101 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 27°C and 28°C as nearly equal favorites for Tokyo’s minimum temperature on August 26 because recent JMA guidance and ensemble forecasts place overnight lows in that narrow range amid lingering summer warmth. Persistent high pressure and above-normal sea-surface temperatures have sustained warm advection and elevated humidity, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling, while urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo add roughly 1–2 °C to baseline readings. Model spread arises mainly from uncertain timing of any late-day showers, which could enhance or suppress cooling by a degree. Historical climatology shows typical late-August minima near 24–25 °C, yet 2026’s above-average pattern supports the current market-implied odds until fresher model runs arrive.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$2,129結束日期
2026-08-26市場開放時間
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 27°C and 28°C as nearly equal favorites for Tokyo’s minimum temperature on August 26 because recent JMA guidance and ensemble forecasts place overnight lows in that narrow range amid lingering summer warmth. Persistent high pressure and above-normal sea-surface temperatures have sustained warm advection and elevated humidity, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling, while urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo add roughly 1–2 °C to baseline readings. Model spread arises mainly from uncertain timing of any late-day showers, which could enhance or suppress cooling by a degree. Historical climatology shows typical late-August minima near 24–25 °C, yet 2026’s above-average pattern supports the current market-implied odds until fresher model runs arrive.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,129結束日期
2026-08-26市場開放時間
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETTraders see 27°C and 28°C as nearly equal favorites for Tokyo’s minimum temperature on August 26 because recent JMA guidance and ensemble forecasts place overnight lows in that narrow range amid lingering summer warmth. Persistent high pressure and above-normal sea-surface temperatures have sustained warm advection and elevated humidity, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling, while urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo add roughly 1–2 °C to baseline readings. Model spread arises mainly from uncertain timing of any late-day showers, which could enhance or suppress cooling by a degree. Historical climatology shows typical late-August minima near 24–25 °C, yet 2026’s above-average pattern supports the current market-implied odds until fresher model runs arrive.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions