Hawaii's 1st Congressional District, encompassing Honolulu and surrounding Oahu communities, carries a D+13 Partisan Voter Index and has delivered Democratic general-election margins above 70 percent in recent cycles. Incumbent Ed Case secured renomination on August 8 by defeating state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole 60 percent to 36 percent in the Democratic primary, after earlier polling showed a competitive intra-party contest. Republican nominee Adriel Lam faces structural headwinds in a district where forecasters uniformly assign Solid or Safe Democratic ratings. These factors underpin the market's 95.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or dramatic national realignment could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical results and the district's demographic profile limit realistic paths for a Republican victory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$35,259 交易量
$35,259 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
96%
共和党
5%
$35,259 交易量
$35,259 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$14,953 交易量
96%
共和党
$20,305 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 1st Congressional District, encompassing Honolulu and surrounding Oahu communities, carries a D+13 Partisan Voter Index and has delivered Democratic general-election margins above 70 percent in recent cycles. Incumbent Ed Case secured renomination on August 8 by defeating state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole 60 percent to 36 percent in the Democratic primary, after earlier polling showed a competitive intra-party contest. Republican nominee Adriel Lam faces structural headwinds in a district where forecasters uniformly assign Solid or Safe Democratic ratings. These factors underpin the market's 95.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or dramatic national realignment could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical results and the district's demographic profile limit realistic paths for a Republican victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
交易量
$35,259结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 1st Congressional District, encompassing Honolulu and surrounding Oahu communities, carries a D+13 Partisan Voter Index and has delivered Democratic general-election margins above 70 percent in recent cycles. Incumbent Ed Case secured renomination on August 8 by defeating state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole 60 percent to 36 percent in the Democratic primary, after earlier polling showed a competitive intra-party contest. Republican nominee Adriel Lam faces structural headwinds in a district where forecasters uniformly assign Solid or Safe Democratic ratings. These factors underpin the market's 95.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or dramatic national realignment could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical results and the district's demographic profile limit realistic paths for a Republican victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$35,259结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETHawaii's 1st Congressional District, encompassing Honolulu and surrounding Oahu communities, carries a D+13 Partisan Voter Index and has delivered Democratic general-election margins above 70 percent in recent cycles. Incumbent Ed Case secured renomination on August 8 by defeating state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole 60 percent to 36 percent in the Democratic primary, after earlier polling showed a competitive intra-party contest. Republican nominee Adriel Lam faces structural headwinds in a district where forecasters uniformly assign Solid or Safe Democratic ratings. These factors underpin the market's 95.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or dramatic national realignment could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical results and the district's demographic profile limit realistic paths for a Republican victory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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