The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast for Tokyo on August 15, 2026, establishes a maximum temperature of 29°C, aligning with model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and supporting the market's 100% implied probability for that outcome. This reflects typical mid-August conditions under stable atmospheric patterns, with daytime highs moderated by humidity and cloud cover rather than extreme heat advection. Historical baselines show August averages near 31°C, but current observations and short-range model runs confirm limited variability. Resolution hinges on official JMA measurements at designated stations; scenarios that could shift the result include unexpected convective activity or localized urban heat island effects exceeding the forecast by 1–2°C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月15日东京气温最高？
8月15日东京气温最高？
29°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$84,012 交易量
$84,012 交易量
2026-08-15
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
Yes
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
29°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$84,012 交易量
$84,012 交易量
2026-08-15
24°C or below
$504 交易量
No
25°C
$557 交易量
No
26°C
$1,360 交易量
No
27°C
$7,919 交易量
No
28°C
$9,329 交易量
No
29°C
$16,787 交易量
Yes
30°C
$12,285 交易量
No
31°C
$13,671 交易量
No
32°C
$8,309 交易量
No
33°C
$8,304 交易量
No
34°C or higher
$4,986 交易量
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast for Tokyo on August 15, 2026, establishes a maximum temperature of 29°C, aligning with model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and supporting the market's 100% implied probability for that outcome. This reflects typical mid-August conditions under stable atmospheric patterns, with daytime highs moderated by humidity and cloud cover rather than extreme heat advection. Historical baselines show August averages near 31°C, but current observations and short-range model runs confirm limited variability. Resolution hinges on official JMA measurements at designated stations; scenarios that could shift the result include unexpected convective activity or localized urban heat island effects exceeding the forecast by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$84,012结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET已提议结果: Yes
无争议
最终结果: Yes
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast for Tokyo on August 15, 2026, establishes a maximum temperature of 29°C, aligning with model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and supporting the market's 100% implied probability for that outcome. This reflects typical mid-August conditions under stable atmospheric patterns, with daytime highs moderated by humidity and cloud cover rather than extreme heat advection. Historical baselines show August averages near 31°C, but current observations and short-range model runs confirm limited variability. Resolution hinges on official JMA measurements at designated stations; scenarios that could shift the result include unexpected convective activity or localized urban heat island effects exceeding the forecast by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$84,012结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET已提议结果: Yes
无争议
最终结果: Yes
The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast for Tokyo on August 15, 2026, establishes a maximum temperature of 29°C, aligning with model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and supporting the market's 100% implied probability for that outcome. This reflects typical mid-August conditions under stable atmospheric patterns, with daytime highs moderated by humidity and cloud cover rather than extreme heat advection. Historical baselines show August averages near 31°C, but current observations and short-range model runs confirm limited variability. Resolution hinges on official JMA measurements at designated stations; scenarios that could shift the result include unexpected convective activity or localized urban heat island effects exceeding the forecast by 1–2°C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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