No confirmed VEI 4 or higher eruptions have occurred through mid-May 2026 despite ongoing activity at roughly 40–50 volcanoes worldwide. Historical records from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program show VEI ≥4 events occur with an average frequency of about one to two per year, though annual totals vary widely due to the stochastic nature of magmatic systems and the challenges of precise VEI assignment based on tephra volume and plume height. Current low implied probability for multiple events reflects this baseline rate plus the absence of new unrest at high-risk systems monitored by the USGS and national observatories. Traders are watching for updated weekly activity reports that could signal intensification capable of reaching the VEI 4 threshold before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0 61%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 <1%
$1,079,004 交易量
$1,079,004 交易量
2026-12-31
0
61%
1
35%
2
4%
3
1%
4
<1%
5+
<1%
0 61%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 <1%
$1,079,004 交易量
$1,079,004 交易量
2026-12-31
0
$477,398 交易量
61%
1
$260,191 交易量
35%
2
$32,241 交易量
4%
3
$26,240 交易量
1%
4
$24,441 交易量
<1%
5+
$258,493 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.No confirmed VEI 4 or higher eruptions have occurred through mid-May 2026 despite ongoing activity at roughly 40–50 volcanoes worldwide. Historical records from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program show VEI ≥4 events occur with an average frequency of about one to two per year, though annual totals vary widely due to the stochastic nature of magmatic systems and the challenges of precise VEI assignment based on tephra volume and plume height. Current low implied probability for multiple events reflects this baseline rate plus the absence of new unrest at high-risk systems monitored by the USGS and national observatories. Traders are watching for updated weekly activity reports that could signal intensification capable of reaching the VEI 4 threshold before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
交易量
$1,079,004结束日期
2027-03-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.No confirmed VEI 4 or higher eruptions have occurred through mid-May 2026 despite ongoing activity at roughly 40–50 volcanoes worldwide. Historical records from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program show VEI ≥4 events occur with an average frequency of about one to two per year, though annual totals vary widely due to the stochastic nature of magmatic systems and the challenges of precise VEI assignment based on tephra volume and plume height. Current low implied probability for multiple events reflects this baseline rate plus the absence of new unrest at high-risk systems monitored by the USGS and national observatories. Traders are watching for updated weekly activity reports that could signal intensification capable of reaching the VEI 4 threshold before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
交易量
$1,079,004结束日期
2027-03-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...No confirmed VEI 4 or higher eruptions have occurred through mid-May 2026 despite ongoing activity at roughly 40–50 volcanoes worldwide. Historical records from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program show VEI ≥4 events occur with an average frequency of about one to two per year, though annual totals vary widely due to the stochastic nature of magmatic systems and the challenges of precise VEI assignment based on tephra volume and plume height. Current low implied probability for multiple events reflects this baseline rate plus the absence of new unrest at high-risk systems monitored by the USGS and national observatories. Traders are watching for updated weekly activity reports that could signal intensification capable of reaching the VEI 4 threshold before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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