Iowa’s 1st congressional district remains a toss-up for the November 2026 general election, with the rematch between Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democrat Christina Bohannan driving trader positioning. Both candidates secured their party nominations in the June 2 primaries by comfortable margins. The R+4 district saw Miller-Meeks prevail by just 0.2 percent in 2024, and recent polling averages show Bohannan ahead by roughly 4 points. National midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party, combined with the seat’s history of narrow margins and shifting voter turnout patterns, underpin the current implied probabilities favoring a Democratic outcome while leaving room for late-cycle shifts in this battleground contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-04
民主党
73%
共和党
28%
最新
最新
2026-11-04
民主党
$2,597 交易量
73%
共和党
$2,390 交易量
28%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa’s 1st congressional district remains a toss-up for the November 2026 general election, with the rematch between Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democrat Christina Bohannan driving trader positioning. Both candidates secured their party nominations in the June 2 primaries by comfortable margins. The R+4 district saw Miller-Meeks prevail by just 0.2 percent in 2024, and recent polling averages show Bohannan ahead by roughly 4 points. National midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party, combined with the seat’s history of narrow margins and shifting voter turnout patterns, underpin the current implied probabilities favoring a Democratic outcome while leaving room for late-cycle shifts in this battleground contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ET
交易量
$4,987结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa’s 1st congressional district remains a toss-up for the November 2026 general election, with the rematch between Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democrat Christina Bohannan driving trader positioning. Both candidates secured their party nominations in the June 2 primaries by comfortable margins. The R+4 district saw Miller-Meeks prevail by just 0.2 percent in 2024, and recent polling averages show Bohannan ahead by roughly 4 points. National midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party, combined with the seat’s history of narrow margins and shifting voter turnout patterns, underpin the current implied probabilities favoring a Democratic outcome while leaving room for late-cycle shifts in this battleground contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$4,987结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Iowa’s 1st congressional district remains a toss-up for the November 2026 general election, with the rematch between Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democrat Christina Bohannan driving trader positioning. Both candidates secured their party nominations in the June 2 primaries by comfortable margins. The R+4 district saw Miller-Meeks prevail by just 0.2 percent in 2024, and recent polling averages show Bohannan ahead by roughly 4 points. National midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party, combined with the seat’s history of narrow margins and shifting voter turnout patterns, underpin the current implied probabilities favoring a Democratic outcome while leaving room for late-cycle shifts in this battleground contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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