Iowa's 4th Congressional District, an open seat after incumbent Randy Feenstra's departure for the 2026 gubernatorial race, remains a Republican stronghold with an R+15 partisan lean and no Democratic representative since the 1970s. Trader consensus at 92% for the Republican Party reflects the GOP's unification behind Trump-endorsed Chris McGowan, who stands alone in the June 2 primary following rivals' withdrawals like Matt Windschitl, bolstered by superior fundraising ($379,000 cash on hand). Democrats face a fragmented three-way primary among Dave Dawson, Stephanie Steiner, and Ashley WolfTornabane with limited resources, underscoring structural barriers. Shifts could arise from primary upsets, nominee scandals, or a national Democratic wave, though historical double-digit GOP margins in the district signal formidable hurdles ahead of the November general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
92%
民主党
8%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
$4,946 交易量
92%
民主党
$4,946 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa's 4th Congressional District, an open seat after incumbent Randy Feenstra's departure for the 2026 gubernatorial race, remains a Republican stronghold with an R+15 partisan lean and no Democratic representative since the 1970s. Trader consensus at 92% for the Republican Party reflects the GOP's unification behind Trump-endorsed Chris McGowan, who stands alone in the June 2 primary following rivals' withdrawals like Matt Windschitl, bolstered by superior fundraising ($379,000 cash on hand). Democrats face a fragmented three-way primary among Dave Dawson, Stephanie Steiner, and Ashley WolfTornabane with limited resources, underscoring structural barriers. Shifts could arise from primary upsets, nominee scandals, or a national Democratic wave, though historical double-digit GOP margins in the district signal formidable hurdles ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
交易量
$9,892结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa's 4th Congressional District, an open seat after incumbent Randy Feenstra's departure for the 2026 gubernatorial race, remains a Republican stronghold with an R+15 partisan lean and no Democratic representative since the 1970s. Trader consensus at 92% for the Republican Party reflects the GOP's unification behind Trump-endorsed Chris McGowan, who stands alone in the June 2 primary following rivals' withdrawals like Matt Windschitl, bolstered by superior fundraising ($379,000 cash on hand). Democrats face a fragmented three-way primary among Dave Dawson, Stephanie Steiner, and Ashley WolfTornabane with limited resources, underscoring structural barriers. Shifts could arise from primary upsets, nominee scandals, or a national Democratic wave, though historical double-digit GOP margins in the district signal formidable hurdles ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$9,892结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Iowa's 4th Congressional District, an open seat after incumbent Randy Feenstra's departure for the 2026 gubernatorial race, remains a Republican stronghold with an R+15 partisan lean and no Democratic representative since the 1970s. Trader consensus at 92% for the Republican Party reflects the GOP's unification behind Trump-endorsed Chris McGowan, who stands alone in the June 2 primary following rivals' withdrawals like Matt Windschitl, bolstered by superior fundraising ($379,000 cash on hand). Democrats face a fragmented three-way primary among Dave Dawson, Stephanie Steiner, and Ashley WolfTornabane with limited resources, underscoring structural barriers. Shifts could arise from primary upsets, nominee scandals, or a national Democratic wave, though historical double-digit GOP margins in the district signal formidable hurdles ahead of the November general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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