Iowa's 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat following the June 2026 primaries, where Chris McGowan secured the GOP nomination and Dave Dawson advanced for Democrats. All major forecasters classify the race as safe or solid Republican, consistent with the district's R+15 partisan voting index and double-digit GOP margins in prior cycles. The open-seat dynamic after incumbent Randy Feenstra's unsuccessful gubernatorial bid has not altered the underlying partisan balance or prompted notable shifts in campaign activity. Trader pricing at 92.5% Republican reflects this structural advantage and limited new information since the primaries, though an independent candidate and broader midterm turnout patterns represent the main variables that could narrow the outcome in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$32,156 交易量
$32,156 交易量
2026-11-02
共和党
93%
民主党
7%
$32,156 交易量
$32,156 交易量
2026-11-02
共和党
$20,064 交易量
93%
民主党
$12,091 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa's 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat following the June 2026 primaries, where Chris McGowan secured the GOP nomination and Dave Dawson advanced for Democrats. All major forecasters classify the race as safe or solid Republican, consistent with the district's R+15 partisan voting index and double-digit GOP margins in prior cycles. The open-seat dynamic after incumbent Randy Feenstra's unsuccessful gubernatorial bid has not altered the underlying partisan balance or prompted notable shifts in campaign activity. Trader pricing at 92.5% Republican reflects this structural advantage and limited new information since the primaries, though an independent candidate and broader midterm turnout patterns represent the main variables that could narrow the outcome in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
交易量
$32,156结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa's 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat following the June 2026 primaries, where Chris McGowan secured the GOP nomination and Dave Dawson advanced for Democrats. All major forecasters classify the race as safe or solid Republican, consistent with the district's R+15 partisan voting index and double-digit GOP margins in prior cycles. The open-seat dynamic after incumbent Randy Feenstra's unsuccessful gubernatorial bid has not altered the underlying partisan balance or prompted notable shifts in campaign activity. Trader pricing at 92.5% Republican reflects this structural advantage and limited new information since the primaries, though an independent candidate and broader midterm turnout patterns represent the main variables that could narrow the outcome in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$32,156结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Iowa's 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat following the June 2026 primaries, where Chris McGowan secured the GOP nomination and Dave Dawson advanced for Democrats. All major forecasters classify the race as safe or solid Republican, consistent with the district's R+15 partisan voting index and double-digit GOP margins in prior cycles. The open-seat dynamic after incumbent Randy Feenstra's unsuccessful gubernatorial bid has not altered the underlying partisan balance or prompted notable shifts in campaign activity. Trader pricing at 92.5% Republican reflects this structural advantage and limited new information since the primaries, though an independent candidate and broader midterm turnout patterns represent the main variables that could narrow the outcome in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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