Forecast models from the National Weather Service and private ensembles currently favor a minimum temperature in Miami on August 17 in the 78–81°F range, producing the near-even market split between the 78–79°F and 80–81°F bins. Persistent subtropical ridging, light easterly flow, and high dew points near 75°F are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling while partly cloudy skies and urban heat retention add slight upward bias. Recent runs show minimal spread in overnight guidance, consistent with climatological August norms of 78–80°F lows, though any increase in cloud cover or a subtle wind shift could nudge readings into the lower bin. Traders are closely watching the next NHC and local forecast discussion updates ahead of the overnight period.