Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in Massachusetts’s 4th congressional district, a seat rated Solid Democratic by the Cook Political Report with a D+11 partisan voting index. Recent candidate filings ahead of the May 2026 deadline confirmed only minor Democratic primary challengers with negligible fundraising against Auchincloss’s substantial cash reserves, while the lone Republican entrant and independent candidate present limited general-election threats in a district where the incumbent captured 97 percent in 2024. The September 1 Democratic primary and November 3 general election timeline reinforce the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. A primary upset, an unexpectedly strong Republican challenger, or a historic national midterm wave could still shift outcomes, though structural district advantages and lack of competitive polling keep such scenarios unlikely.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$35,118 交易量
$35,118 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$35,118 交易量
$35,118 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$17,239 交易量
94%
共和党
$17,879 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in Massachusetts’s 4th congressional district, a seat rated Solid Democratic by the Cook Political Report with a D+11 partisan voting index. Recent candidate filings ahead of the May 2026 deadline confirmed only minor Democratic primary challengers with negligible fundraising against Auchincloss’s substantial cash reserves, while the lone Republican entrant and independent candidate present limited general-election threats in a district where the incumbent captured 97 percent in 2024. The September 1 Democratic primary and November 3 general election timeline reinforce the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. A primary upset, an unexpectedly strong Republican challenger, or a historic national midterm wave could still shift outcomes, though structural district advantages and lack of competitive polling keep such scenarios unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$35,118结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in Massachusetts’s 4th congressional district, a seat rated Solid Democratic by the Cook Political Report with a D+11 partisan voting index. Recent candidate filings ahead of the May 2026 deadline confirmed only minor Democratic primary challengers with negligible fundraising against Auchincloss’s substantial cash reserves, while the lone Republican entrant and independent candidate present limited general-election threats in a district where the incumbent captured 97 percent in 2024. The September 1 Democratic primary and November 3 general election timeline reinforce the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. A primary upset, an unexpectedly strong Republican challenger, or a historic national midterm wave could still shift outcomes, though structural district advantages and lack of competitive polling keep such scenarios unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$35,118结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in Massachusetts’s 4th congressional district, a seat rated Solid Democratic by the Cook Political Report with a D+11 partisan voting index. Recent candidate filings ahead of the May 2026 deadline confirmed only minor Democratic primary challengers with negligible fundraising against Auchincloss’s substantial cash reserves, while the lone Republican entrant and independent candidate present limited general-election threats in a district where the incumbent captured 97 percent in 2024. The September 1 Democratic primary and November 3 general election timeline reinforce the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. A primary upset, an unexpectedly strong Republican challenger, or a historic national midterm wave could still shift outcomes, though structural district advantages and lack of competitive polling keep such scenarios unlikely.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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