Recent primary elections in states like Texas and North Carolina have shown elevated participation rates compared to prior midterm cycles, reflecting strong mobilization on both sides amid dissatisfaction with the economy and President Trump's approval ratings near 45%. These trends, combined with Democratic advantages in the generic ballot and ongoing redistricting shifts that could alter competitive districts, support trader expectations for national House turnout in the 125-130 million range. The closely matched probabilities around this level highlight uncertainty over whether sustained polarization and key issues such as affordability will sustain above-average engagement through November or if typical midterm drop-off occurs. Upcoming primaries and summer polling shifts could further separate outcomes by clarifying voter intensity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated115-120m 27%
130m+ 25%
125-130m 15%
120-125m 12%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<85m
<1%
85-90m
<1%
90-95m
1%
95-100m
5%
100-105m
1%
105-110m
5%
110-115m
15%
115-120m
27%
120-125m
35%
125-130m
26%
130m+
25%
115-120m 27%
130m+ 25%
125-130m 15%
120-125m 12%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<85m
$324 Vol.
<1%
85-90m
$419 Vol.
<1%
90-95m
$1,552 Vol.
1%
95-100m
$269 Vol.
5%
100-105m
$791 Vol.
1%
105-110m
$436 Vol.
5%
110-115m
$526 Vol.
15%
115-120m
$1,025 Vol.
27%
120-125m
$408 Vol.
35%
125-130m
$1,204 Vol.
26%
130m+
$307 Vol.
25%
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent primary elections in states like Texas and North Carolina have shown elevated participation rates compared to prior midterm cycles, reflecting strong mobilization on both sides amid dissatisfaction with the economy and President Trump's approval ratings near 45%. These trends, combined with Democratic advantages in the generic ballot and ongoing redistricting shifts that could alter competitive districts, support trader expectations for national House turnout in the 125-130 million range. The closely matched probabilities around this level highlight uncertainty over whether sustained polarization and key issues such as affordability will sustain above-average engagement through November or if typical midterm drop-off occurs. Upcoming primaries and summer polling shifts could further separate outcomes by clarifying voter intensity.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Market Opened: Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ET
Volume
$7,260End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent primary elections in states like Texas and North Carolina have shown elevated participation rates compared to prior midterm cycles, reflecting strong mobilization on both sides amid dissatisfaction with the economy and President Trump's approval ratings near 45%. These trends, combined with Democratic advantages in the generic ballot and ongoing redistricting shifts that could alter competitive districts, support trader expectations for national House turnout in the 125-130 million range. The closely matched probabilities around this level highlight uncertainty over whether sustained polarization and key issues such as affordability will sustain above-average engagement through November or if typical midterm drop-off occurs. Upcoming primaries and summer polling shifts could further separate outcomes by clarifying voter intensity.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$7,260End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent primary elections in states like Texas and North Carolina have shown elevated participation rates compared to prior midterm cycles, reflecting strong mobilization on both sides amid dissatisfaction with the economy and President Trump's approval ratings near 45%. These trends, combined with Democratic advantages in the generic ballot and ongoing redistricting shifts that could alter competitive districts, support trader expectations for national House turnout in the 125-130 million range. The closely matched probabilities around this level highlight uncertainty over whether sustained polarization and key issues such as affordability will sustain above-average engagement through November or if typical midterm drop-off occurs. Upcoming primaries and summer polling shifts could further separate outcomes by clarifying voter intensity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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