Google's Gemini models drove the dominant trader consensus at 99.5% implied probability for third place on OpenRouter market share during the week of September 7, fueled by steady token volume growth in Gemini 3 Flash variants amid broader platform usage data. This positioning reflects Google's competitive edge in integrated developer tools and cost-effective inference options that captured meaningful query routing, outpacing several Chinese labs and established players in the aggregated weekly totals. Key upcoming catalysts include any late-week model releases or pricing adjustments that could shift shares before resolution. Scenarios that could still challenge this include sudden spikes in adoption for Z.ai's GLM series, Tencent's Hy models, or DeepSeek variants if new open-weight releases accelerate token volume beyond current trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 100.0%
Anthropic 1.0%
DeepSeek <1%
Z.ai <1%
$11,191 Vol.
$11,191 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
DeepSeek
No
Z.ai
No
OpenAI
No
Tencent
No
Xiaomi
No
Yes
Anthropic
No
MiniMax
No
Nvidia
No
Qwen
No
Meta
No
xAI
No
Google 100.0%
Anthropic 1.0%
DeepSeek <1%
Z.ai <1%
$11,191 Vol.
$11,191 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
DeepSeek
$808 Vol.
No
Z.ai
$936 Vol.
No
OpenAI
$1,095 Vol.
No
Tencent
$658 Vol.
No
Xiaomi
$557 Vol.
No
$2,857 Vol.
Yes
Anthropic
$782 Vol.
No
MiniMax
$721 Vol.
No
Nvidia
$779 Vol.
No
Qwen
$547 Vol.
No
Meta
$791 Vol.
No
xAI
$659 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the AI lab with the third highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026.
A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used.
This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 18, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 3rd after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.Google's Gemini models drove the dominant trader consensus at 99.5% implied probability for third place on OpenRouter market share during the week of September 7, fueled by steady token volume growth in Gemini 3 Flash variants amid broader platform usage data. This positioning reflects Google's competitive edge in integrated developer tools and cost-effective inference options that captured meaningful query routing, outpacing several Chinese labs and established players in the aggregated weekly totals. Key upcoming catalysts include any late-week model releases or pricing adjustments that could shift shares before resolution. Scenarios that could still challenge this include sudden spikes in adoption for Z.ai's GLM series, Tencent's Hy models, or DeepSeek variants if new open-weight releases accelerate token volume beyond current trends.
This market will resolve to the AI lab with the third highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026.
A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used.
This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 18, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 3rd after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.
A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used.
This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 18, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 3rd after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 3:50 PM ET
Volume
$11,191End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 3:50 PM ETResolution Source
https://openrouter.ai/rankingsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the AI lab with the third highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026.
A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used.
This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 18, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 3rd after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.Google's Gemini models drove the dominant trader consensus at 99.5% implied probability for third place on OpenRouter market share during the week of September 7, fueled by steady token volume growth in Gemini 3 Flash variants amid broader platform usage data. This positioning reflects Google's competitive edge in integrated developer tools and cost-effective inference options that captured meaningful query routing, outpacing several Chinese labs and established players in the aggregated weekly totals. Key upcoming catalysts include any late-week model releases or pricing adjustments that could shift shares before resolution. Scenarios that could still challenge this include sudden spikes in adoption for Z.ai's GLM series, Tencent's Hy models, or DeepSeek variants if new open-weight releases accelerate token volume beyond current trends.
This market will resolve to the AI lab with the third highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026.
A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used.
This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 18, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 3rd after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.
A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used.
This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 18, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 3rd after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.
Volume
$11,191End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 3:50 PM ETResolution Source
https://openrouter.ai/rankingsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Google's Gemini models drove the dominant trader consensus at 99.5% implied probability for third place on OpenRouter market share during the week of September 7, fueled by steady token volume growth in Gemini 3 Flash variants amid broader platform usage data. This positioning reflects Google's competitive edge in integrated developer tools and cost-effective inference options that captured meaningful query routing, outpacing several Chinese labs and established players in the aggregated weekly totals. Key upcoming catalysts include any late-week model releases or pricing adjustments that could shift shares before resolution. Scenarios that could still challenge this include sudden spikes in adoption for Z.ai's GLM series, Tencent's Hy models, or DeepSeek variants if new open-weight releases accelerate token volume beyond current trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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