Lula holds a clear lead in first-round voting intentions according to late-September 2026 polls from Datafolha, Quaest, AtlasIntel, and others, typically at 38–42% versus 35–40% for Flavio Bolsonaro, with all other candidates in single digits. This positioning stems from Lula’s incumbency advantage, stronger support among lower-income and Northeastern voters, and the absence of a unified centrist alternative, despite high rejection rates for both frontrunners and ongoing polarization over economic performance, security, and corruption investigations. Flavio Bolsonaro’s candidacy as the Liberal Party nominee benefits from right-wing consolidation but faces headwinds from his father’s legal status and limited centrist alliances. With the October 4 first round only days away and no candidate approaching a majority, traders price Lula as the most probable plurality winner while assigning minimal probability to lesser-known contenders such as Augusto Cury or Ronaldo Caiado. Recent polling has shown the gap narrowing to statistical ties in runoff scenarios, underscoring the race’s competitiveness.