Lula maintains a consistent lead in first-round polling as the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate seeking re-election, with recent Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel surveys placing him at 37–45% support ahead of the October 4 vote, ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro at 33–43%. The gap has narrowed but remains within margins of error across multiple firms, while minor candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos register single-digit shares. High rejection rates for both frontrunners limit the prospect of an outright majority, directing trader focus to Lula’s edge in vote intention and path to topping the first-round tally. Scheduled debates and final-week campaigning in key regions could still influence turnout and margins before ballots close.