CDC's preliminary FluSurv-NET data, covering 13 states and nearly 9% of the U.S. population, reports the cumulative laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalization rate through Week 18 (ending May 9, 2026) squarely in the 85–90 per 100,000 band, anchoring trader consensus at a 99.2% implied probability for this outcome. This reflects the 2025–2026 season's moderate severity—the third-highest cumulative rate since 2010–2011—fueled by early peaks in influenza A(H3N2) cases among children and older adults, followed by sharp declines in outpatient visits and test positivity since late April. With flu activity now minimal, weekly additions are negligible. Realistic challenges include rare data revisions in the official FluView report due May 15, potentially shifting the figure by 1–2 points from delayed lab confirmations, though historical patterns show stability late-season.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlu Hospitalization Rate Week 18, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 18, 2026?
85–90 99.3%
90–95 <1%
80–85 <1%
<80 <1%
$11,949 Vol.
$11,949 Vol.
May 15, 2026
<80
<1%
80–85
<1%
85–90
99%
90–95
1%
95–100
<1%
100+
<1%
85–90 99.3%
90–95 <1%
80–85 <1%
<80 <1%
$11,949 Vol.
$11,949 Vol.
May 15, 2026
<80
$1,446 Vol.
<1%
80–85
$1,569 Vol.
<1%
85–90
$5,238 Vol.
99%
90–95
$2,254 Vol.
1%
95–100
$680 Vol.
<1%
100+
$762 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.CDC's preliminary FluSurv-NET data, covering 13 states and nearly 9% of the U.S. population, reports the cumulative laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalization rate through Week 18 (ending May 9, 2026) squarely in the 85–90 per 100,000 band, anchoring trader consensus at a 99.2% implied probability for this outcome. This reflects the 2025–2026 season's moderate severity—the third-highest cumulative rate since 2010–2011—fueled by early peaks in influenza A(H3N2) cases among children and older adults, followed by sharp declines in outpatient visits and test positivity since late April. With flu activity now minimal, weekly additions are negligible. Realistic challenges include rare data revisions in the official FluView report due May 15, potentially shifting the figure by 1–2 points from delayed lab confirmations, though historical patterns show stability late-season.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Market Opened: May 8, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
Volume
$11,949End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.CDC's preliminary FluSurv-NET data, covering 13 states and nearly 9% of the U.S. population, reports the cumulative laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalization rate through Week 18 (ending May 9, 2026) squarely in the 85–90 per 100,000 band, anchoring trader consensus at a 99.2% implied probability for this outcome. This reflects the 2025–2026 season's moderate severity—the third-highest cumulative rate since 2010–2011—fueled by early peaks in influenza A(H3N2) cases among children and older adults, followed by sharp declines in outpatient visits and test positivity since late April. With flu activity now minimal, weekly additions are negligible. Realistic challenges include rare data revisions in the official FluView report due May 15, potentially shifting the figure by 1–2 points from delayed lab confirmations, though historical patterns show stability late-season.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Volume
$11,949End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...CDC's preliminary FluSurv-NET data, covering 13 states and nearly 9% of the U.S. population, reports the cumulative laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalization rate through Week 18 (ending May 9, 2026) squarely in the 85–90 per 100,000 band, anchoring trader consensus at a 99.2% implied probability for this outcome. This reflects the 2025–2026 season's moderate severity—the third-highest cumulative rate since 2010–2011—fueled by early peaks in influenza A(H3N2) cases among children and older adults, followed by sharp declines in outpatient visits and test positivity since late April. With flu activity now minimal, weekly additions are negligible. Realistic challenges include rare data revisions in the official FluView report due May 15, potentially shifting the figure by 1–2 points from delayed lab confirmations, though historical patterns show stability late-season.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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