Elon Musk’s September 14, 2026 roadmap posts have become the dominant driver of trader sentiment, positioning Grok 5 as the model expected to reach AGI-level performance while inserting multiple intermediate releases—Grok 4.7 through 4.9—ahead of it. xAI confirmed Grok 5 training in its January 2026 Series E round, yet earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped amid successive 4.x iterations, including the July 2026 launch of Grok 4.5. The model is described as a 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts system running on the expanded Colossus 2 cluster, but no official release date or benchmarks have been issued. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty, with December 31, 2026 probabilities hovering near 50 percent. Near-term catalysts include completion of Grok 4.8 training and any subsequent multimodal or capability updates that could accelerate or further defer the flagship.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$13,734 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
10%
November 30
16%
December 31
56%
$13,734 Vol.
October 31
$2,977 Vol.
10%
November 30
$1,210 Vol.
16%
December 31
$4,469 Vol.
56%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 14, 2026 roadmap posts have become the dominant driver of trader sentiment, positioning Grok 5 as the model expected to reach AGI-level performance while inserting multiple intermediate releases—Grok 4.7 through 4.9—ahead of it. xAI confirmed Grok 5 training in its January 2026 Series E round, yet earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped amid successive 4.x iterations, including the July 2026 launch of Grok 4.5. The model is described as a 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts system running on the expanded Colossus 2 cluster, but no official release date or benchmarks have been issued. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty, with December 31, 2026 probabilities hovering near 50 percent. Near-term catalysts include completion of Grok 4.8 training and any subsequent multimodal or capability updates that could accelerate or further defer the flagship.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$13,734End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 14, 2026 roadmap posts have become the dominant driver of trader sentiment, positioning Grok 5 as the model expected to reach AGI-level performance while inserting multiple intermediate releases—Grok 4.7 through 4.9—ahead of it. xAI confirmed Grok 5 training in its January 2026 Series E round, yet earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped amid successive 4.x iterations, including the July 2026 launch of Grok 4.5. The model is described as a 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts system running on the expanded Colossus 2 cluster, but no official release date or benchmarks have been issued. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty, with December 31, 2026 probabilities hovering near 50 percent. Near-term catalysts include completion of Grok 4.8 training and any subsequent multimodal or capability updates that could accelerate or further defer the flagship.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$13,734End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elon Musk’s September 14, 2026 roadmap posts have become the dominant driver of trader sentiment, positioning Grok 5 as the model expected to reach AGI-level performance while inserting multiple intermediate releases—Grok 4.7 through 4.9—ahead of it. xAI confirmed Grok 5 training in its January 2026 Series E round, yet earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped amid successive 4.x iterations, including the July 2026 launch of Grok 4.5. The model is described as a 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts system running on the expanded Colossus 2 cluster, but no official release date or benchmarks have been issued. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty, with December 31, 2026 probabilities hovering near 50 percent. Near-term catalysts include completion of Grok 4.8 training and any subsequent multimodal or capability updates that could accelerate or further defer the flagship.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions