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Highest temperature in Austin on June 11?

icon for Highest temperature in Austin on June 11?

Highest temperature in Austin on June 11?

92-93°F 100.0%

85°F or below <1%

86-87°F <1%

88-89°F <1%

Polymarket

$28,625 Vol.

92-93°F 100.0%

85°F or below <1%

86-87°F <1%

88-89°F <1%

Polymarket

$28,625 Vol.

85°F or below

$1,842 Vol.

No

86-87°F

$1,518 Vol.

No

88-89°F

$4,157 Vol.

No

90-91°F

$4,586 Vol.

No

92-93°F

$6,653 Vol.

Yes

94-95°F

$3,267 Vol.

No

96-97°F

$3,347 Vol.

No

98-99°F

$1,425 Vol.

No

100-101°F

$771 Vol.

No

102-103°F

$304 Vol.

No

104°F or higher

$754 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Traders have converged on the 92-93°F bin at full implied probability because official observations from Austin Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS) recorded a daily maximum in that exact range on June 11.** National Weather Service data and automated station reports confirm this peak under clear to partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and dew points in the low-to-mid 70s, consistent with early-June climatology for central Texas where highs typically climb from the upper 80s into the low 90s. Model guidance issued 24–48 hours prior had already narrowed the expected range tightly around 91–94°F, leaving little room for deviation once the 24-hour observational window closed. The only realistic scenarios that could still shift resolution are an unusually large post-event quality-control adjustment by the National Centers for Environmental Information or a rare station instrumentation issue—both historically infrequent and unlikely to move the final value outside the 92–93°F bracket.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Jun '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$28,625
End Date
Jun 11, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 9:06 PM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Traders have converged on the 92-93°F bin at full implied probability because official observations from Austin Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS) recorded a daily maximum in that exact range on June 11.** National Weather Service data and automated station reports confirm this peak under clear to partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and dew points in the low-to-mid 70s, consistent with early-June climatology for central Texas where highs typically climb from the upper 80s into the low 90s. Model guidance issued 24–48 hours prior had already narrowed the expected range tightly around 91–94°F, leaving little room for deviation once the 24-hour observational window closed. The only realistic scenarios that could still shift resolution are an unusually large post-event quality-control adjustment by the National Centers for Environmental Information or a rare station instrumentation issue—both historically infrequent and unlikely to move the final value outside the 92–93°F bracket.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Jun '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$28,625
End Date
Jun 11, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 9:06 PM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Austin on June 11?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "92-93°F" at 100%, followed by "85°F or below" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Austin on June 11?" has generated $28.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 10, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Austin on June 11?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Austin on June 11?" is "92-93°F" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "85°F or below" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Austin on June 11?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.