Current forecast models from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international sources point to a daytime maximum near 14°C in Buenos Aires on May 17, reflecting the primary driver behind the 56% market-implied probability for that outcome. This aligns with typical autumn cooling in the Southern Hemisphere, where May averages hover around 17–19°C but recent atmospheric patterns, including a stable high-pressure ridge, have suppressed temperatures by several degrees below seasonal norms. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 13°C and 15°C outcomes, consistent with ensemble variability in short-range predictions and historical May daily highs rarely exceeding 20°C without strong warm advection. Updated observations and model runs through the morning will likely tighten resolution around these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on May 17?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on May 17?
14°C 51%
13°C 20%
15°C 19%
16°C 1.7%
$20,549 Vol.
$20,549 Vol.
May 17, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
20%
14°C
51%
15°C
19%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
14°C 51%
13°C 20%
15°C 19%
16°C 1.7%
$20,549 Vol.
$20,549 Vol.
May 17, 2026
9°C or below
$1,395 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$1,707 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$1,417 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$2,823 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$2,013 Vol.
20%
14°C
$2,081 Vol.
51%
15°C
$1,471 Vol.
19%
16°C
$1,818 Vol.
2%
17°C
$1,753 Vol.
1%
18°C
$1,214 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$2,888 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast models from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international sources point to a daytime maximum near 14°C in Buenos Aires on May 17, reflecting the primary driver behind the 56% market-implied probability for that outcome. This aligns with typical autumn cooling in the Southern Hemisphere, where May averages hover around 17–19°C but recent atmospheric patterns, including a stable high-pressure ridge, have suppressed temperatures by several degrees below seasonal norms. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 13°C and 15°C outcomes, consistent with ensemble variability in short-range predictions and historical May daily highs rarely exceeding 20°C without strong warm advection. Updated observations and model runs through the morning will likely tighten resolution around these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$20,549End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast models from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international sources point to a daytime maximum near 14°C in Buenos Aires on May 17, reflecting the primary driver behind the 56% market-implied probability for that outcome. This aligns with typical autumn cooling in the Southern Hemisphere, where May averages hover around 17–19°C but recent atmospheric patterns, including a stable high-pressure ridge, have suppressed temperatures by several degrees below seasonal norms. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 13°C and 15°C outcomes, consistent with ensemble variability in short-range predictions and historical May daily highs rarely exceeding 20°C without strong warm advection. Updated observations and model runs through the morning will likely tighten resolution around these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$20,549End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZCurrent forecast models from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international sources point to a daytime maximum near 14°C in Buenos Aires on May 17, reflecting the primary driver behind the 56% market-implied probability for that outcome. This aligns with typical autumn cooling in the Southern Hemisphere, where May averages hover around 17–19°C but recent atmospheric patterns, including a stable high-pressure ridge, have suppressed temperatures by several degrees below seasonal norms. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 13°C and 15°C outcomes, consistent with ensemble variability in short-range predictions and historical May daily highs rarely exceeding 20°C without strong warm advection. Updated observations and model runs through the morning will likely tighten resolution around these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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