Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate a daily maximum near 31°C for Chengdu on May 18, driving the closely bunched market-implied odds across 29–32°C outcomes. A strengthening subtropical ridge over the Sichuan basin favors clear skies and light northeasterly winds that enhance daytime solar heating above the late-May climatological average of 27–28°C. Lingering low-level moisture and minor model spread sustain viability for slightly lower or higher peaks, while probabilities for 33°C or above remain minimal. Traders monitor the final afternoon observation window at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport and any last steering-flow adjustments before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on May 18?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 18?
31°C 21%
29°C 21%
30°C 21%
32°C 19%
NEW
$11,661 Vol.
NEW
$11,661 Vol.
May 18, 2026
26°C or below
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
10%
29°C
21%
30°C
21%
31°C
21%
32°C
19%
33°C
4%
34°C
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
31°C 21%
29°C 21%
30°C 21%
32°C 19%
NEW
$11,661 Vol.
NEW
$11,661 Vol.
May 18, 2026
26°C or below
$1,615 Vol.
1%
27°C
$1,061 Vol.
2%
28°C
$565 Vol.
10%
29°C
$1,124 Vol.
21%
30°C
$753 Vol.
21%
31°C
$1,067 Vol.
21%
32°C
$1,078 Vol.
19%
33°C
$921 Vol.
4%
34°C
$1,040 Vol.
1%
35°C
$725 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$2,877 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate a daily maximum near 31°C for Chengdu on May 18, driving the closely bunched market-implied odds across 29–32°C outcomes. A strengthening subtropical ridge over the Sichuan basin favors clear skies and light northeasterly winds that enhance daytime solar heating above the late-May climatological average of 27–28°C. Lingering low-level moisture and minor model spread sustain viability for slightly lower or higher peaks, while probabilities for 33°C or above remain minimal. Traders monitor the final afternoon observation window at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport and any last steering-flow adjustments before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$11,661End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate a daily maximum near 31°C for Chengdu on May 18, driving the closely bunched market-implied odds across 29–32°C outcomes. A strengthening subtropical ridge over the Sichuan basin favors clear skies and light northeasterly winds that enhance daytime solar heating above the late-May climatological average of 27–28°C. Lingering low-level moisture and minor model spread sustain viability for slightly lower or higher peaks, while probabilities for 33°C or above remain minimal. Traders monitor the final afternoon observation window at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport and any last steering-flow adjustments before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$11,661End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUURecent numerical weather prediction ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate a daily maximum near 31°C for Chengdu on May 18, driving the closely bunched market-implied odds across 29–32°C outcomes. A strengthening subtropical ridge over the Sichuan basin favors clear skies and light northeasterly winds that enhance daytime solar heating above the late-May climatological average of 27–28°C. Lingering low-level moisture and minor model spread sustain viability for slightly lower or higher peaks, while probabilities for 33°C or above remain minimal. Traders monitor the final afternoon observation window at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport and any last steering-flow adjustments before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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