Recent National Weather Service guidance for Dallas on May 17 forecasts a daytime high near 90°F, driven by southerly flow advecting warm, moist air ahead of a weak front. Ensemble output from the GFS and ECMWF models shows consensus around 86–89°F depending on the timing and coverage of afternoon thunderstorms, which could limit peak heating through increased cloud cover. This places the 88–89°F bin as the market leader at 56.5% implied probability, with 86–87°F a close second, reflecting traders’ assessment of typical May climatology where Dallas averages 85°F highs yet can reach the upper 80s under clear to partly cloudy conditions. Minor upward revisions in short-range model runs have modestly lifted odds for 90–91°F while keeping sub-86°F outcomes below 1%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on May 17?
Highest temperature in Dallas on May 17?
88-89°F 59%
86-87°F 32%
90-91°F 7%
92°F or higher <1%
$52,370 Vol.
$52,370 Vol.
May 17, 2026
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
37%
88-89°F
59%
90-91°F
7%
92°F or higher
1%
88-89°F 59%
86-87°F 32%
90-91°F 7%
92°F or higher <1%
$52,370 Vol.
$52,370 Vol.
May 17, 2026
73°F or below
$13,405 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$2,233 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$3,904 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$2,123 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$1,359 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$8,464 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$5,477 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$3,582 Vol.
37%
88-89°F
$3,395 Vol.
59%
90-91°F
$3,001 Vol.
7%
92°F or higher
$5,495 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service guidance for Dallas on May 17 forecasts a daytime high near 90°F, driven by southerly flow advecting warm, moist air ahead of a weak front. Ensemble output from the GFS and ECMWF models shows consensus around 86–89°F depending on the timing and coverage of afternoon thunderstorms, which could limit peak heating through increased cloud cover. This places the 88–89°F bin as the market leader at 56.5% implied probability, with 86–87°F a close second, reflecting traders’ assessment of typical May climatology where Dallas averages 85°F highs yet can reach the upper 80s under clear to partly cloudy conditions. Minor upward revisions in short-range model runs have modestly lifted odds for 90–91°F while keeping sub-86°F outcomes below 1%.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$52,370End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service guidance for Dallas on May 17 forecasts a daytime high near 90°F, driven by southerly flow advecting warm, moist air ahead of a weak front. Ensemble output from the GFS and ECMWF models shows consensus around 86–89°F depending on the timing and coverage of afternoon thunderstorms, which could limit peak heating through increased cloud cover. This places the 88–89°F bin as the market leader at 56.5% implied probability, with 86–87°F a close second, reflecting traders’ assessment of typical May climatology where Dallas averages 85°F highs yet can reach the upper 80s under clear to partly cloudy conditions. Minor upward revisions in short-range model runs have modestly lifted odds for 90–91°F while keeping sub-86°F outcomes below 1%.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$52,370End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALRecent National Weather Service guidance for Dallas on May 17 forecasts a daytime high near 90°F, driven by southerly flow advecting warm, moist air ahead of a weak front. Ensemble output from the GFS and ECMWF models shows consensus around 86–89°F depending on the timing and coverage of afternoon thunderstorms, which could limit peak heating through increased cloud cover. This places the 88–89°F bin as the market leader at 56.5% implied probability, with 86–87°F a close second, reflecting traders’ assessment of typical May climatology where Dallas averages 85°F highs yet can reach the upper 80s under clear to partly cloudy conditions. Minor upward revisions in short-range model runs have modestly lifted odds for 90–91°F while keeping sub-86°F outcomes below 1%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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