Recent Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts have converged on a daytime maximum near 18°C across London under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow. This consensus, aligned with historical mid-May climatology for southeast England, underpins the overwhelming market-implied probability for that exact outcome. Ensemble agreement leaves minimal scope for deviation, though late-afternoon clearing or minor warm advection could realistically nudge readings toward 19°C. Current model spreads keep the chance of 20°C or higher negligible, while official verification from the Met Office will resolve the market once final hourly observations are confirmed at standard London stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on May 17?
Highest temperature in London on May 17?
18°C 99.8%
17°C <1%
19°C <1%
10°C or below <1%
$158,496 Vol.
$158,496 Vol.
May 17, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
100%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
18°C 99.8%
17°C <1%
19°C <1%
10°C or below <1%
$158,496 Vol.
$158,496 Vol.
May 17, 2026
10°C or below
$997 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$1,915 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$8,287 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$12,717 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$13,308 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$19,210 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$26,721 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$30,362 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$19,147 Vol.
100%
19°C
$19,242 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$6,601 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts have converged on a daytime maximum near 18°C across London under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow. This consensus, aligned with historical mid-May climatology for southeast England, underpins the overwhelming market-implied probability for that exact outcome. Ensemble agreement leaves minimal scope for deviation, though late-afternoon clearing or minor warm advection could realistically nudge readings toward 19°C. Current model spreads keep the chance of 20°C or higher negligible, while official verification from the Met Office will resolve the market once final hourly observations are confirmed at standard London stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$158,496End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts have converged on a daytime maximum near 18°C across London under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow. This consensus, aligned with historical mid-May climatology for southeast England, underpins the overwhelming market-implied probability for that exact outcome. Ensemble agreement leaves minimal scope for deviation, though late-afternoon clearing or minor warm advection could realistically nudge readings toward 19°C. Current model spreads keep the chance of 20°C or higher negligible, while official verification from the Met Office will resolve the market once final hourly observations are confirmed at standard London stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$158,496End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCRecent Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts have converged on a daytime maximum near 18°C across London under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow. This consensus, aligned with historical mid-May climatology for southeast England, underpins the overwhelming market-implied probability for that exact outcome. Ensemble agreement leaves minimal scope for deviation, though late-afternoon clearing or minor warm advection could realistically nudge readings toward 19°C. Current model spreads keep the chance of 20°C or higher negligible, while official verification from the Met Office will resolve the market once final hourly observations are confirmed at standard London stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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