Recent India Meteorological Department forecasts for Lucknow indicate a maximum temperature at or below 41°C on May 17 under clear pre-monsoon conditions typical of the Ganges Plain, driving the overwhelming market consensus at 99.6% implied probability for that outcome. Official model runs and observational data show limited moisture and no active western disturbances to suppress daytime heating, consistent with historical May baselines where highs often cluster near 39–42°C. This positioning reflects traders’ assessment of stable atmospheric patterns favoring routine seasonal warmth rather than extreme spikes. A sudden shift in steering winds or unforecasted convective activity could still push readings above the threshold before official verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lucknow on May 17?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on May 17?
41°C or below 99.7%
42°C <1%
43°C <1%
44°C <1%
$39,795 Vol.
$39,795 Vol.
May 17, 2026
41°C or below
100%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C
<1%
46°C
<1%
47°C
<1%
48°C
<1%
49°C
<1%
50°C
<1%
51°C or higher
<1%
41°C or below 99.7%
42°C <1%
43°C <1%
44°C <1%
$39,795 Vol.
$39,795 Vol.
May 17, 2026
41°C or below
$6,238 Vol.
100%
42°C
$2,860 Vol.
<1%
43°C
$3,900 Vol.
<1%
44°C
$5,343 Vol.
<1%
45°C
$3,118 Vol.
<1%
46°C
$2,551 Vol.
<1%
47°C
$6,418 Vol.
<1%
48°C
$6,412 Vol.
<1%
49°C
$862 Vol.
<1%
50°C
$908 Vol.
<1%
51°C or higher
$1,183 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent India Meteorological Department forecasts for Lucknow indicate a maximum temperature at or below 41°C on May 17 under clear pre-monsoon conditions typical of the Ganges Plain, driving the overwhelming market consensus at 99.6% implied probability for that outcome. Official model runs and observational data show limited moisture and no active western disturbances to suppress daytime heating, consistent with historical May baselines where highs often cluster near 39–42°C. This positioning reflects traders’ assessment of stable atmospheric patterns favoring routine seasonal warmth rather than extreme spikes. A sudden shift in steering winds or unforecasted convective activity could still push readings above the threshold before official verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$39,795End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent India Meteorological Department forecasts for Lucknow indicate a maximum temperature at or below 41°C on May 17 under clear pre-monsoon conditions typical of the Ganges Plain, driving the overwhelming market consensus at 99.6% implied probability for that outcome. Official model runs and observational data show limited moisture and no active western disturbances to suppress daytime heating, consistent with historical May baselines where highs often cluster near 39–42°C. This positioning reflects traders’ assessment of stable atmospheric patterns favoring routine seasonal warmth rather than extreme spikes. A sudden shift in steering winds or unforecasted convective activity could still push readings above the threshold before official verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$39,795End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKRecent India Meteorological Department forecasts for Lucknow indicate a maximum temperature at or below 41°C on May 17 under clear pre-monsoon conditions typical of the Ganges Plain, driving the overwhelming market consensus at 99.6% implied probability for that outcome. Official model runs and observational data show limited moisture and no active western disturbances to suppress daytime heating, consistent with historical May baselines where highs often cluster near 39–42°C. This positioning reflects traders’ assessment of stable atmospheric patterns favoring routine seasonal warmth rather than extreme spikes. A sudden shift in steering winds or unforecasted convective activity could still push readings above the threshold before official verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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