India Meteorological Department forecasts project a maximum temperature of 40–42°C in Lucknow on May 18 under partly cloudy skies and moist westerly flow associated with a weak western disturbance. This setup reduces daytime solar heating compared with typical pre-monsoon clear-sky conditions that often push readings to 43–45°C. The broader seasonal outlook from the IMD anticipates below-normal maximum temperatures across much of northern India through May owing to above-average rainfall, which further supports the elevated market-implied probability for 42°C or lower. Historical records for mid-May place the climatological mean near 41°C, with values exceeding 44°C occurring mainly during prolonged dry spells. Updated IMD guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signal for any late adjustments.