Current PAGASA forecasts and model consensus for Metro Manila on May 17 point to a peak temperature of 34–35°C under partly cloudy skies, with afternoon convective activity from localized thunderstorms acting as the primary limiter on further heating. This aligns with May climatology, when peak solar insolation typically drives highs near 34°C before sea-breeze effects and scattered showers suppress afternoon maxima. Recent observations from the Science Garden station show similar patterns on preceding days, with highs settling at 35–36°C when convection remains isolated. Trader positioning between the 34°C and 35°C outcomes reflects uncertainty over exact timing and intensity of rainshowers, which can reduce surface heating by 1–2°C. Ongoing monitoring of real-time data releases will clarify whether conditions allow a brief surge to 36°C before evening cooling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on May 17?
Highest temperature in Manila on May 17?
35°C 69%
36°C 22.8%
37°C 3.0%
34°C <1%
$17,588 Vol.
$17,588 Vol.
May 17, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
1%
35°C
65%
36°C
23%
37°C
3%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
35°C 69%
36°C 22.8%
37°C 3.0%
34°C <1%
$17,588 Vol.
$17,588 Vol.
May 17, 2026
29°C or below
$2,179 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$1,210 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$2,658 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$2,038 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$2,322 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$1,787 Vol.
1%
35°C
$1,787 Vol.
65%
36°C
$1,847 Vol.
23%
37°C
$982 Vol.
3%
38°C
$667 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$391 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current PAGASA forecasts and model consensus for Metro Manila on May 17 point to a peak temperature of 34–35°C under partly cloudy skies, with afternoon convective activity from localized thunderstorms acting as the primary limiter on further heating. This aligns with May climatology, when peak solar insolation typically drives highs near 34°C before sea-breeze effects and scattered showers suppress afternoon maxima. Recent observations from the Science Garden station show similar patterns on preceding days, with highs settling at 35–36°C when convection remains isolated. Trader positioning between the 34°C and 35°C outcomes reflects uncertainty over exact timing and intensity of rainshowers, which can reduce surface heating by 1–2°C. Ongoing monitoring of real-time data releases will clarify whether conditions allow a brief surge to 36°C before evening cooling.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$17,588End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current PAGASA forecasts and model consensus for Metro Manila on May 17 point to a peak temperature of 34–35°C under partly cloudy skies, with afternoon convective activity from localized thunderstorms acting as the primary limiter on further heating. This aligns with May climatology, when peak solar insolation typically drives highs near 34°C before sea-breeze effects and scattered showers suppress afternoon maxima. Recent observations from the Science Garden station show similar patterns on preceding days, with highs settling at 35–36°C when convection remains isolated. Trader positioning between the 34°C and 35°C outcomes reflects uncertainty over exact timing and intensity of rainshowers, which can reduce surface heating by 1–2°C. Ongoing monitoring of real-time data releases will clarify whether conditions allow a brief surge to 36°C before evening cooling.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$17,588End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLCurrent PAGASA forecasts and model consensus for Metro Manila on May 17 point to a peak temperature of 34–35°C under partly cloudy skies, with afternoon convective activity from localized thunderstorms acting as the primary limiter on further heating. This aligns with May climatology, when peak solar insolation typically drives highs near 34°C before sea-breeze effects and scattered showers suppress afternoon maxima. Recent observations from the Science Garden station show similar patterns on preceding days, with highs settling at 35–36°C when convection remains isolated. Trader positioning between the 34°C and 35°C outcomes reflects uncertainty over exact timing and intensity of rainshowers, which can reduce surface heating by 1–2°C. Ongoing monitoring of real-time data releases will clarify whether conditions allow a brief surge to 36°C before evening cooling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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