**Persistent subtropical high pressure from North Africa continues to dominate northern Italy, driving clear skies, light winds, and strong daytime heating over the Po Valley ahead of August 6.** Official forecasts from the Met Office and BBC Weather project a maximum of 37°C in Milan for Thursday, consistent with the market’s leading 37°C outcome (48% implied probability) and closely followed 36°C (38%). This reflects the ongoing fourth major heatwave of summer 2026, with Italian health authorities maintaining red alerts for Milan and surrounding cities amid mid-30s readings in recent days. Urban heat-island effects and minimal cloud cover amplify peak temperatures, while model consensus shows limited variability in steering patterns that could shift the high by more than 1°C. Traders appear to weigh the high probability of 36–37°C against modest chances of slight cooling or intensification, aligning with the narrow distribution around these values and very low odds for extremes above 38°C or below 35°C. Updated model runs and any last-minute changes in the anticyclone position will be the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on August 6?
Highest temperature in Milan on August 6?
37°C 47%
36°C 39%
38°C 8%
35°C 5%
NEW
$11,777 Vol.
NEW
$11,777 Vol.
Aug 6, 2026
34°C or below
2%
35°C
5%
36°C
39%
37°C
47%
38°C
8%
39°C
1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
37°C 47%
36°C 39%
38°C 8%
35°C 5%
NEW
$11,777 Vol.
NEW
$11,777 Vol.
Aug 6, 2026
34°C or below
$800 Vol.
2%
35°C
$1,609 Vol.
5%
36°C
$2,304 Vol.
39%
37°C
$3,078 Vol.
47%
38°C
$951 Vol.
8%
39°C
$801 Vol.
1%
40°C
$568 Vol.
<1%
41°C
$500 Vol.
<1%
42°C
$317 Vol.
<1%
43°C
$401 Vol.
<1%
44°C or higher
$448 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent subtropical high pressure from North Africa continues to dominate northern Italy, driving clear skies, light winds, and strong daytime heating over the Po Valley ahead of August 6.** Official forecasts from the Met Office and BBC Weather project a maximum of 37°C in Milan for Thursday, consistent with the market’s leading 37°C outcome (48% implied probability) and closely followed 36°C (38%).
This reflects the ongoing fourth major heatwave of summer 2026, with Italian health authorities maintaining red alerts for Milan and surrounding cities amid mid-30s readings in recent days. Urban heat-island effects and minimal cloud cover amplify peak temperatures, while model consensus shows limited variability in steering patterns that could shift the high by more than 1°C. Traders appear to weigh the high probability of 36–37°C against modest chances of slight cooling or intensification, aligning with the narrow distribution around these values and very low odds for extremes above 38°C or below 35°C. Updated model runs and any last-minute changes in the anticyclone position will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$11,777End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent subtropical high pressure from North Africa continues to dominate northern Italy, driving clear skies, light winds, and strong daytime heating over the Po Valley ahead of August 6.** Official forecasts from the Met Office and BBC Weather project a maximum of 37°C in Milan for Thursday, consistent with the market’s leading 37°C outcome (48% implied probability) and closely followed 36°C (38%).
This reflects the ongoing fourth major heatwave of summer 2026, with Italian health authorities maintaining red alerts for Milan and surrounding cities amid mid-30s readings in recent days. Urban heat-island effects and minimal cloud cover amplify peak temperatures, while model consensus shows limited variability in steering patterns that could shift the high by more than 1°C. Traders appear to weigh the high probability of 36–37°C against modest chances of slight cooling or intensification, aligning with the narrow distribution around these values and very low odds for extremes above 38°C or below 35°C. Updated model runs and any last-minute changes in the anticyclone position will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,777End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent subtropical high pressure from North Africa continues to dominate northern Italy, driving clear skies, light winds, and strong daytime heating over the Po Valley ahead of August 6.** Official forecasts from the Met Office and BBC Weather project a maximum of 37°C in Milan for Thursday, consistent with the market’s leading 37°C outcome (48% implied probability) and closely followed 36°C (38%). This reflects the ongoing fourth major heatwave of summer 2026, with Italian health authorities maintaining red alerts for Milan and surrounding cities amid mid-30s readings in recent days. Urban heat-island effects and minimal cloud cover amplify peak temperatures, while model consensus shows limited variability in steering patterns that could shift the high by more than 1°C. Traders appear to weigh the high probability of 36–37°C against modest chances of slight cooling or intensification, aligning with the narrow distribution around these values and very low odds for extremes above 38°C or below 35°C. Updated model runs and any last-minute changes in the anticyclone position will be the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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