Latest numerical weather prediction models from sources like Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global ensembles show Mexico City highs clustering near 26–27°C for August 6, driving the tight 36.5%–31.5% market split. High-elevation location at roughly 2,240 meters, combined with peak rainy-season convection, produces afternoon cloud build-up and scattered showers that cap insolation and limit warming. Recent days have featured similar variability, with observed maxima fluctuating between 23–27°C depending on exact timing of precipitation and urban heat-island effects. Low probabilities for 28°C or higher reflect limited model support for clearer skies or stronger subsidence, while traders weigh final 24-hour forecast updates expected overnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on August 6?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on August 6?
27°C 37%
26°C 32%
25°C 17%
28°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 6, 2026
23°C or below
2%
24°C
3%
25°C
17%
26°C
32%
27°C
37%
28°C
14%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 37%
26°C 32%
25°C 17%
28°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 6, 2026
23°C or below
$74 Vol.
2%
24°C
$74 Vol.
3%
25°C
$319 Vol.
17%
26°C
$157 Vol.
32%
27°C
$795 Vol.
37%
28°C
$108 Vol.
14%
29°C
$143 Vol.
1%
30°C
$27 Vol.
1%
31°C
$281 Vol.
1%
32°C
$349 Vol.
1%
33°C or higher
$681 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models from sources like Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global ensembles show Mexico City highs clustering near 26–27°C for August 6, driving the tight 36.5%–31.5% market split. High-elevation location at roughly 2,240 meters, combined with peak rainy-season convection, produces afternoon cloud build-up and scattered showers that cap insolation and limit warming. Recent days have featured similar variability, with observed maxima fluctuating between 23–27°C depending on exact timing of precipitation and urban heat-island effects. Low probabilities for 28°C or higher reflect limited model support for clearer skies or stronger subsidence, while traders weigh final 24-hour forecast updates expected overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$3,007End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models from sources like Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global ensembles show Mexico City highs clustering near 26–27°C for August 6, driving the tight 36.5%–31.5% market split. High-elevation location at roughly 2,240 meters, combined with peak rainy-season convection, produces afternoon cloud build-up and scattered showers that cap insolation and limit warming. Recent days have featured similar variability, with observed maxima fluctuating between 23–27°C depending on exact timing of precipitation and urban heat-island effects. Low probabilities for 28°C or higher reflect limited model support for clearer skies or stronger subsidence, while traders weigh final 24-hour forecast updates expected overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,007End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction models from sources like Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global ensembles show Mexico City highs clustering near 26–27°C for August 6, driving the tight 36.5%–31.5% market split. High-elevation location at roughly 2,240 meters, combined with peak rainy-season convection, produces afternoon cloud build-up and scattered showers that cap insolation and limit warming. Recent days have featured similar variability, with observed maxima fluctuating between 23–27°C depending on exact timing of precipitation and urban heat-island effects. Low probabilities for 28°C or higher reflect limited model support for clearer skies or stronger subsidence, while traders weigh final 24-hour forecast updates expected overnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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