Ongoing extreme heat across northern Italy, driven by a persistent high-pressure anticyclone promoting clear skies and subsidence warming in the Po Valley, positions 36–37°C as the leading outcomes for Milan’s August 5 maximum. Official forecasts from European meteorological agencies and AccuWeather indicate afternoon peaks near 37°C (around 99–103°F), consistent with the market’s 60.5% implied probability for 36°C and 34% for 37°C, while red alerts highlight risks from urban heat island effects elevating city-center readings above regional averages. Light winds and minimal cloud cover support modest further intensification, though model consensus shows limited upside beyond 37°C absent unexpected boundary-layer heating. Historical August baselines near 30°C underscore the anomaly, with resolution hinging on official station data at day’s end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on August 5?
Highest temperature in Milan on August 5?
36°C 61%
37°C 36%
38°C 3%
35°C 2%
$26,008 Vol.
$26,008 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
33°C or below
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
2%
36°C
61%
37°C
36%
38°C
3%
39°C
1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
36°C 61%
37°C 36%
38°C 3%
35°C 2%
$26,008 Vol.
$26,008 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
33°C or below
$1,954 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$2,700 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$4,106 Vol.
2%
36°C
$3,487 Vol.
61%
37°C
$7,328 Vol.
36%
38°C
$2,570 Vol.
3%
39°C
$2,158 Vol.
1%
40°C
$689 Vol.
<1%
41°C
$287 Vol.
<1%
42°C
$287 Vol.
<1%
43°C or higher
$443 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing extreme heat across northern Italy, driven by a persistent high-pressure anticyclone promoting clear skies and subsidence warming in the Po Valley, positions 36–37°C as the leading outcomes for Milan’s August 5 maximum. Official forecasts from European meteorological agencies and AccuWeather indicate afternoon peaks near 37°C (around 99–103°F), consistent with the market’s 60.5% implied probability for 36°C and 34% for 37°C, while red alerts highlight risks from urban heat island effects elevating city-center readings above regional averages. Light winds and minimal cloud cover support modest further intensification, though model consensus shows limited upside beyond 37°C absent unexpected boundary-layer heating. Historical August baselines near 30°C underscore the anomaly, with resolution hinging on official station data at day’s end.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$26,008End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing extreme heat across northern Italy, driven by a persistent high-pressure anticyclone promoting clear skies and subsidence warming in the Po Valley, positions 36–37°C as the leading outcomes for Milan’s August 5 maximum. Official forecasts from European meteorological agencies and AccuWeather indicate afternoon peaks near 37°C (around 99–103°F), consistent with the market’s 60.5% implied probability for 36°C and 34% for 37°C, while red alerts highlight risks from urban heat island effects elevating city-center readings above regional averages. Light winds and minimal cloud cover support modest further intensification, though model consensus shows limited upside beyond 37°C absent unexpected boundary-layer heating. Historical August baselines near 30°C underscore the anomaly, with resolution hinging on official station data at day’s end.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$26,008End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing extreme heat across northern Italy, driven by a persistent high-pressure anticyclone promoting clear skies and subsidence warming in the Po Valley, positions 36–37°C as the leading outcomes for Milan’s August 5 maximum. Official forecasts from European meteorological agencies and AccuWeather indicate afternoon peaks near 37°C (around 99–103°F), consistent with the market’s 60.5% implied probability for 36°C and 34% for 37°C, while red alerts highlight risks from urban heat island effects elevating city-center readings above regional averages. Light winds and minimal cloud cover support modest further intensification, though model consensus shows limited upside beyond 37°C absent unexpected boundary-layer heating. Historical August baselines near 30°C underscore the anomaly, with resolution hinging on official station data at day’s end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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