Recent National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco indicate a warming trend driven by reduced marine layer influence and offshore flow, positioning the market-implied probability of a daily high at or above 68°F near 83.5%. This consensus reflects model runs showing afternoon temperatures potentially climbing into the upper 60s amid clearer skies and lighter winds, consistent with seasonal norms where May highs average around 65–70°F at downtown stations. Key variables include the strength of the Pacific high-pressure system and any diurnal heating before the typical evening marine intrusion, with official observations from San Francisco International Airport serving as the resolution benchmark. Updated guidance later today could refine these odds if coastal stratus develops earlier than anticipated.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on May 17?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on May 17?
68°F or higher 83%
66-67°F 14%
64-65°F 2.1%
49°F or below <1%
$20,675 Vol.
$20,675 Vol.
May 17, 2026
49°F or below
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
2%
66-67°F
14%
68°F or higher
83%
68°F or higher 83%
66-67°F 14%
64-65°F 2.1%
49°F or below <1%
$20,675 Vol.
$20,675 Vol.
May 17, 2026
49°F or below
$894 Vol.
<1%
50-51°F
$1,542 Vol.
<1%
52-53°F
$555 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$608 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$3,452 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$2,032 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$1,112 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$2,454 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$3,658 Vol.
2%
66-67°F
$2,316 Vol.
14%
68°F or higher
$2,166 Vol.
83%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco indicate a warming trend driven by reduced marine layer influence and offshore flow, positioning the market-implied probability of a daily high at or above 68°F near 83.5%. This consensus reflects model runs showing afternoon temperatures potentially climbing into the upper 60s amid clearer skies and lighter winds, consistent with seasonal norms where May highs average around 65–70°F at downtown stations. Key variables include the strength of the Pacific high-pressure system and any diurnal heating before the typical evening marine intrusion, with official observations from San Francisco International Airport serving as the resolution benchmark. Updated guidance later today could refine these odds if coastal stratus develops earlier than anticipated.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$20,675End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco indicate a warming trend driven by reduced marine layer influence and offshore flow, positioning the market-implied probability of a daily high at or above 68°F near 83.5%. This consensus reflects model runs showing afternoon temperatures potentially climbing into the upper 60s amid clearer skies and lighter winds, consistent with seasonal norms where May highs average around 65–70°F at downtown stations. Key variables include the strength of the Pacific high-pressure system and any diurnal heating before the typical evening marine intrusion, with official observations from San Francisco International Airport serving as the resolution benchmark. Updated guidance later today could refine these odds if coastal stratus develops earlier than anticipated.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$20,675End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFORecent National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco indicate a warming trend driven by reduced marine layer influence and offshore flow, positioning the market-implied probability of a daily high at or above 68°F near 83.5%. This consensus reflects model runs showing afternoon temperatures potentially climbing into the upper 60s amid clearer skies and lighter winds, consistent with seasonal norms where May highs average around 65–70°F at downtown stations. Key variables include the strength of the Pacific high-pressure system and any diurnal heating before the typical evening marine intrusion, with official observations from San Francisco International Airport serving as the resolution benchmark. Updated guidance later today could refine these odds if coastal stratus develops earlier than anticipated.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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