Japan Meteorological Agency forecast models indicate a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto plain, bringing clear skies, light southerly flow, and intense afternoon solar heating that positions Tokyo for a daily maximum of 28°C or higher on May 18. Ensemble guidance clusters tightly around 28–30°C, well above the mid-May climatological average of 23–25°C, driving the market’s 67% implied probability for the leading outcome. Traders are monitoring the final JMA model runs and surface observations ahead of tomorrow’s diurnal peak, with resolution based on official Tokyo station records. This setup reflects typical warm-sector patterns under similar synoptic conditions, though minor forecast adjustments remain possible.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 18?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 18?
28°C or higher 71%
27°C 25%
26°C 3.4%
25°C <1%
NEW
$42,077 Vol.
NEW
$42,077 Vol.
May 18, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
3%
27°C
25%
28°C or higher
71%
28°C or higher 71%
27°C 25%
26°C 3.4%
25°C <1%
NEW
$42,077 Vol.
NEW
$42,077 Vol.
May 18, 2026
18°C or below
$3,106 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,432 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,081 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,264 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,918 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$2,398 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$15,840 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$3,922 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$4,198 Vol.
3%
27°C
$2,924 Vol.
25%
28°C or higher
$3,994 Vol.
71%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency forecast models indicate a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto plain, bringing clear skies, light southerly flow, and intense afternoon solar heating that positions Tokyo for a daily maximum of 28°C or higher on May 18. Ensemble guidance clusters tightly around 28–30°C, well above the mid-May climatological average of 23–25°C, driving the market’s 67% implied probability for the leading outcome. Traders are monitoring the final JMA model runs and surface observations ahead of tomorrow’s diurnal peak, with resolution based on official Tokyo station records. This setup reflects typical warm-sector patterns under similar synoptic conditions, though minor forecast adjustments remain possible.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$42,077End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency forecast models indicate a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto plain, bringing clear skies, light southerly flow, and intense afternoon solar heating that positions Tokyo for a daily maximum of 28°C or higher on May 18. Ensemble guidance clusters tightly around 28–30°C, well above the mid-May climatological average of 23–25°C, driving the market’s 67% implied probability for the leading outcome. Traders are monitoring the final JMA model runs and surface observations ahead of tomorrow’s diurnal peak, with resolution based on official Tokyo station records. This setup reflects typical warm-sector patterns under similar synoptic conditions, though minor forecast adjustments remain possible.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$42,077End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTJapan Meteorological Agency forecast models indicate a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto plain, bringing clear skies, light southerly flow, and intense afternoon solar heating that positions Tokyo for a daily maximum of 28°C or higher on May 18. Ensemble guidance clusters tightly around 28–30°C, well above the mid-May climatological average of 23–25°C, driving the market’s 67% implied probability for the leading outcome. Traders are monitoring the final JMA model runs and surface observations ahead of tomorrow’s diurnal peak, with resolution based on official Tokyo station records. This setup reflects typical warm-sector patterns under similar synoptic conditions, though minor forecast adjustments remain possible.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions