Current weather models indicate a warm air mass advancing over the Kanto plain, supporting daytime highs near or above 28°C for Tokyo on May 18, which aligns with the market’s leading 57.5% implied probability. Mid-May climatology typically averages 24–25°C, yet recent JMA guidance and ensemble forecasts show elevated thermal conditions driven by southerly flow and limited cloud cover. This setup favors the 28°C-or-higher outcome over cooler bins, with secondary probabilities clustering around 27°C reflecting model spread and typical forecast uncertainty in the 48-hour window. Final observational data from the Japan Meteorological Agency on the 18th will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 18?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 18?
28°C or higher 56%
27°C 26%
26°C 13%
25°C 6.0%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
6%
26°C
13%
27°C
26%
28°C or higher
56%
28°C or higher 56%
27°C 26%
26°C 13%
25°C 6.0%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
18°C or below
$1,178 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,003 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$977 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$401 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$285 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$393 Vol.
1%
24°C
$651 Vol.
1%
25°C
$279 Vol.
6%
26°C
$212 Vol.
13%
27°C
$215 Vol.
26%
28°C or higher
$323 Vol.
56%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current weather models indicate a warm air mass advancing over the Kanto plain, supporting daytime highs near or above 28°C for Tokyo on May 18, which aligns with the market’s leading 57.5% implied probability. Mid-May climatology typically averages 24–25°C, yet recent JMA guidance and ensemble forecasts show elevated thermal conditions driven by southerly flow and limited cloud cover. This setup favors the 28°C-or-higher outcome over cooler bins, with secondary probabilities clustering around 27°C reflecting model spread and typical forecast uncertainty in the 48-hour window. Final observational data from the Japan Meteorological Agency on the 18th will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$5,916End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current weather models indicate a warm air mass advancing over the Kanto plain, supporting daytime highs near or above 28°C for Tokyo on May 18, which aligns with the market’s leading 57.5% implied probability. Mid-May climatology typically averages 24–25°C, yet recent JMA guidance and ensemble forecasts show elevated thermal conditions driven by southerly flow and limited cloud cover. This setup favors the 28°C-or-higher outcome over cooler bins, with secondary probabilities clustering around 27°C reflecting model spread and typical forecast uncertainty in the 48-hour window. Final observational data from the Japan Meteorological Agency on the 18th will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,916End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTCurrent weather models indicate a warm air mass advancing over the Kanto plain, supporting daytime highs near or above 28°C for Tokyo on May 18, which aligns with the market’s leading 57.5% implied probability. Mid-May climatology typically averages 24–25°C, yet recent JMA guidance and ensemble forecasts show elevated thermal conditions driven by southerly flow and limited cloud cover. This setup favors the 28°C-or-higher outcome over cooler bins, with secondary probabilities clustering around 27°C reflecting model spread and typical forecast uncertainty in the 48-hour window. Final observational data from the Japan Meteorological Agency on the 18th will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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