Recent forecast models from Environment Canada and the National Weather Service point to a warming trend under southwesterly flow and mostly sunny skies, positioning Toronto’s official high near the 24–26 °C range at Pearson International Airport and anchoring trader consensus around the tightly bunched 25 °C, 26 °C, and 27 °C-or-higher outcomes. Subtle differences in these probabilities arise from uncertainties in peak afternoon heating, minor variations in cloud cover or wind speed that could shave or add a degree, and the precise timing of maximum solar radiation on this date. Historical May averages near 18–20 °C provide climatological context, yet current atmospheric conditions favor a several-degree positive anomaly. Final resolution will depend on the day’s verified maximum reading, with any late-day model adjustments or unexpected convective development capable of shifting the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Toronto on May 17?
Highest temperature in Toronto on May 17?
25°C 34%
26°C 26.9%
27°C or higher 25.2%
24°C 14%
$35,403 Vol.
$35,403 Vol.
May 17, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
14%
25°C
34%
26°C
27%
27°C or higher
25%
25°C 34%
26°C 26.9%
27°C or higher 25.2%
24°C 14%
$35,403 Vol.
$35,403 Vol.
May 17, 2026
17°C or below
$6,062 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$2,768 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$3,065 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$2,071 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,569 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$3,078 Vol.
1%
23°C
$2,848 Vol.
3%
24°C
$2,536 Vol.
14%
25°C
$2,637 Vol.
34%
26°C
$2,818 Vol.
27%
27°C or higher
$5,155 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast models from Environment Canada and the National Weather Service point to a warming trend under southwesterly flow and mostly sunny skies, positioning Toronto’s official high near the 24–26 °C range at Pearson International Airport and anchoring trader consensus around the tightly bunched 25 °C, 26 °C, and 27 °C-or-higher outcomes. Subtle differences in these probabilities arise from uncertainties in peak afternoon heating, minor variations in cloud cover or wind speed that could shave or add a degree, and the precise timing of maximum solar radiation on this date. Historical May averages near 18–20 °C provide climatological context, yet current atmospheric conditions favor a several-degree positive anomaly. Final resolution will depend on the day’s verified maximum reading, with any late-day model adjustments or unexpected convective development capable of shifting the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$35,403End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast models from Environment Canada and the National Weather Service point to a warming trend under southwesterly flow and mostly sunny skies, positioning Toronto’s official high near the 24–26 °C range at Pearson International Airport and anchoring trader consensus around the tightly bunched 25 °C, 26 °C, and 27 °C-or-higher outcomes. Subtle differences in these probabilities arise from uncertainties in peak afternoon heating, minor variations in cloud cover or wind speed that could shave or add a degree, and the precise timing of maximum solar radiation on this date. Historical May averages near 18–20 °C provide climatological context, yet current atmospheric conditions favor a several-degree positive anomaly. Final resolution will depend on the day’s verified maximum reading, with any late-day model adjustments or unexpected convective development capable of shifting the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$35,403End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZRecent forecast models from Environment Canada and the National Weather Service point to a warming trend under southwesterly flow and mostly sunny skies, positioning Toronto’s official high near the 24–26 °C range at Pearson International Airport and anchoring trader consensus around the tightly bunched 25 °C, 26 °C, and 27 °C-or-higher outcomes. Subtle differences in these probabilities arise from uncertainties in peak afternoon heating, minor variations in cloud cover or wind speed that could shave or add a degree, and the precise timing of maximum solar radiation on this date. Historical May averages near 18–20 °C provide climatological context, yet current atmospheric conditions favor a several-degree positive anomaly. Final resolution will depend on the day’s verified maximum reading, with any late-day model adjustments or unexpected convective development capable of shifting the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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