Current forecasts from MetService New Zealand and supporting global ensemble models indicate a daytime maximum of 14°C for Wellington on May 17, driving the market's near-certain consensus on that outcome. Mid-autumn conditions in the Southern Hemisphere feature moderate southerly winds, extensive cloud cover, and subdued solar heating that align temperatures with the long-term May average high. Official observations at primary stations, such as Wellington International Airport, will resolve the market based on the highest recorded reading. While a shift to clearer skies or enhanced northerly flow could allow modest warming, model consensus assigns low probability to readings reaching 15°C or above.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on May 17?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 17?
14°C 99.8%
15°C <1%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
$53,814 Vol.
$53,814 Vol.
May 17, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
100%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 99.8%
15°C <1%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
$53,814 Vol.
$53,814 Vol.
May 17, 2026
8°C or below
$4,661 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$2,840 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$2,362 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$4,007 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$2,263 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$7,921 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$7,765 Vol.
100%
15°C
$4,620 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$8,352 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$4,197 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$4,824 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecasts from MetService New Zealand and supporting global ensemble models indicate a daytime maximum of 14°C for Wellington on May 17, driving the market's near-certain consensus on that outcome. Mid-autumn conditions in the Southern Hemisphere feature moderate southerly winds, extensive cloud cover, and subdued solar heating that align temperatures with the long-term May average high. Official observations at primary stations, such as Wellington International Airport, will resolve the market based on the highest recorded reading. While a shift to clearer skies or enhanced northerly flow could allow modest warming, model consensus assigns low probability to readings reaching 15°C or above.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$53,814End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecasts from MetService New Zealand and supporting global ensemble models indicate a daytime maximum of 14°C for Wellington on May 17, driving the market's near-certain consensus on that outcome. Mid-autumn conditions in the Southern Hemisphere feature moderate southerly winds, extensive cloud cover, and subdued solar heating that align temperatures with the long-term May average high. Official observations at primary stations, such as Wellington International Airport, will resolve the market based on the highest recorded reading. While a shift to clearer skies or enhanced northerly flow could allow modest warming, model consensus assigns low probability to readings reaching 15°C or above.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$53,814End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNCurrent forecasts from MetService New Zealand and supporting global ensemble models indicate a daytime maximum of 14°C for Wellington on May 17, driving the market's near-certain consensus on that outcome. Mid-autumn conditions in the Southern Hemisphere feature moderate southerly winds, extensive cloud cover, and subdued solar heating that align temperatures with the long-term May average high. Official observations at primary stations, such as Wellington International Airport, will resolve the market based on the highest recorded reading. While a shift to clearer skies or enhanced northerly flow could allow modest warming, model consensus assigns low probability to readings reaching 15°C or above.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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