Current short-range numerical weather prediction models from MetService New Zealand cluster on an afternoon maximum of 13–15°C for Wellington on May 18 under a stable southerly regime and light winds across Cook Strait. This range aligns with mid-autumn climatology, where daily highs typically fall between 12°C and 15°C, and recent model runs show minimal day-to-day variability following a period of settled conditions. The 14°C outcome leads at 55.5% implied probability because most ensemble members keep peak temperatures from reaching the warmer threshold needed for 15°C while avoiding the cooler bias that would favor 13°C. Traders are watching the next MetService update and official observations from Wellington International Airport, as even a modest shift in wind direction or cloud cover could adjust the final reading by 1°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on May 18?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 18?
14°C 55%
15°C 36%
13°C 6.6%
16°C 2.4%
NEW
$22,383 Vol.
NEW
$22,383 Vol.
May 18, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
7%
14°C
55%
15°C
36%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 55%
15°C 36%
13°C 6.6%
16°C 2.4%
NEW
$22,383 Vol.
NEW
$22,383 Vol.
May 18, 2026
8°C or below
$681 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$485 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$540 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$4,720 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$2,298 Vol.
1%
13°C
$2,838 Vol.
7%
14°C
$2,791 Vol.
55%
15°C
$2,020 Vol.
36%
16°C
$3,959 Vol.
2%
17°C
$1,164 Vol.
1%
18°C or higher
$916 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current short-range numerical weather prediction models from MetService New Zealand cluster on an afternoon maximum of 13–15°C for Wellington on May 18 under a stable southerly regime and light winds across Cook Strait. This range aligns with mid-autumn climatology, where daily highs typically fall between 12°C and 15°C, and recent model runs show minimal day-to-day variability following a period of settled conditions. The 14°C outcome leads at 55.5% implied probability because most ensemble members keep peak temperatures from reaching the warmer threshold needed for 15°C while avoiding the cooler bias that would favor 13°C. Traders are watching the next MetService update and official observations from Wellington International Airport, as even a modest shift in wind direction or cloud cover could adjust the final reading by 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$22,383End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current short-range numerical weather prediction models from MetService New Zealand cluster on an afternoon maximum of 13–15°C for Wellington on May 18 under a stable southerly regime and light winds across Cook Strait. This range aligns with mid-autumn climatology, where daily highs typically fall between 12°C and 15°C, and recent model runs show minimal day-to-day variability following a period of settled conditions. The 14°C outcome leads at 55.5% implied probability because most ensemble members keep peak temperatures from reaching the warmer threshold needed for 15°C while avoiding the cooler bias that would favor 13°C. Traders are watching the next MetService update and official observations from Wellington International Airport, as even a modest shift in wind direction or cloud cover could adjust the final reading by 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$22,383End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNCurrent short-range numerical weather prediction models from MetService New Zealand cluster on an afternoon maximum of 13–15°C for Wellington on May 18 under a stable southerly regime and light winds across Cook Strait. This range aligns with mid-autumn climatology, where daily highs typically fall between 12°C and 15°C, and recent model runs show minimal day-to-day variability following a period of settled conditions. The 14°C outcome leads at 55.5% implied probability because most ensemble members keep peak temperatures from reaching the warmer threshold needed for 15°C while avoiding the cooler bias that would favor 13°C. Traders are watching the next MetService update and official observations from Wellington International Airport, as even a modest shift in wind direction or cloud cover could adjust the final reading by 1°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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