Recent analyses classify the early September 2026 Krakatau eruption as a lower-end VEI 4 based on its ~15 km plume height and estimated tephra volume exceeding 0.1 km³, marking the clearest candidate so far this year. Ongoing activity at Semeru and Manam carries historical VEI 4 designations but lacks new large explosive phases in 2026, while most other active systems (Kīlauea, Etna, Sangay) remain at VEI 2–3 levels. With roughly three months left, the narrow 44.5%–39% split between one versus zero events reflects uncertainty over official VEI assignments for borderline cases and the low baseline frequency of VEI ≥4 eruptions, which average fewer than two per year globally. Updated Smithsonian or USGS assessments and any late-year intensification could shift the market-implied odds.