Absence of any VEI ≥4 eruptions through mid-May 2026 underpins the market's strong tilt toward zero or one event for the full year. VEI 4 requires at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 kilometers, thresholds crossed only rarely, with a long-term global average of roughly 0.6 such eruptions annually. Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program records confirm 47 smaller confirmed eruptions so far, including ongoing effusive or moderate explosive activity at Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, Dukono, and Semeru, yet none have produced sufficient ejecta volume or sustained high plumes. Recent weekly reports note brief ash emissions and unrest but no rapid ground deformation or magmatic recharge signals that would indicate imminent escalation. Daily monitoring updates through year-end remain the primary variables that could shift odds if a major system intensifies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
0 61%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 <1%
$1,079,004 Vol.
$1,079,004 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
61%
1
35%
2
4%
3
1%
4
<1%
5+
<1%
0 61%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 <1%
$1,079,004 Vol.
$1,079,004 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$477,398 Vol.
61%
1
$260,191 Vol.
35%
2
$32,241 Vol.
4%
3
$26,240 Vol.
1%
4
$24,441 Vol.
<1%
5+
$258,493 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Absence of any VEI ≥4 eruptions through mid-May 2026 underpins the market's strong tilt toward zero or one event for the full year. VEI 4 requires at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 kilometers, thresholds crossed only rarely, with a long-term global average of roughly 0.6 such eruptions annually. Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program records confirm 47 smaller confirmed eruptions so far, including ongoing effusive or moderate explosive activity at Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, Dukono, and Semeru, yet none have produced sufficient ejecta volume or sustained high plumes. Recent weekly reports note brief ash emissions and unrest but no rapid ground deformation or magmatic recharge signals that would indicate imminent escalation. Daily monitoring updates through year-end remain the primary variables that could shift odds if a major system intensifies.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,079,004End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Absence of any VEI ≥4 eruptions through mid-May 2026 underpins the market's strong tilt toward zero or one event for the full year. VEI 4 requires at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 kilometers, thresholds crossed only rarely, with a long-term global average of roughly 0.6 such eruptions annually. Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program records confirm 47 smaller confirmed eruptions so far, including ongoing effusive or moderate explosive activity at Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, Dukono, and Semeru, yet none have produced sufficient ejecta volume or sustained high plumes. Recent weekly reports note brief ash emissions and unrest but no rapid ground deformation or magmatic recharge signals that would indicate imminent escalation. Daily monitoring updates through year-end remain the primary variables that could shift odds if a major system intensifies.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,079,004End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Absence of any VEI ≥4 eruptions through mid-May 2026 underpins the market's strong tilt toward zero or one event for the full year. VEI 4 requires at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 kilometers, thresholds crossed only rarely, with a long-term global average of roughly 0.6 such eruptions annually. Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program records confirm 47 smaller confirmed eruptions so far, including ongoing effusive or moderate explosive activity at Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, Dukono, and Semeru, yet none have produced sufficient ejecta volume or sustained high plumes. Recent weekly reports note brief ash emissions and unrest but no rapid ground deformation or magmatic recharge signals that would indicate imminent escalation. Daily monitoring updates through year-end remain the primary variables that could shift odds if a major system intensifies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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