The trader consensus favoring seven Republican senators not running for reelection in 2026 aligns with the seven confirmed announcements as of mid-May 2026. These include retirements by several long-serving members, pushing the total Senate departures to eleven across both parties and marking one of the highest recent turnover rates. Recent weeks have seen no additional Republican exits or reversals, which has stabilized probabilities around this figure while leaving room for late-cycle shifts such as unexpected bids for other offices or primary challenges. Historical patterns of Senate retirements and the extended timeline until filing deadlines support the view that further changes remain possible before the market resolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7 63%
11 19.1%
8 14.6%
5 4.3%
$73,769 Vol.
$73,769 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
1%
5
4%
6
10%
7
63%
8
17%
9
4%
10
2%
11
19%
12+
1%
7 63%
11 19.1%
8 14.6%
5 4.3%
$73,769 Vol.
$73,769 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
$20,070 Vol.
1%
5
$15,535 Vol.
4%
6
$26,450 Vol.
10%
7
$2,145 Vol.
63%
8
$1,599 Vol.
17%
9
$1,328 Vol.
4%
10
$1,303 Vol.
2%
11
$923 Vol.
19%
12+
$4,416 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The trader consensus favoring seven Republican senators not running for reelection in 2026 aligns with the seven confirmed announcements as of mid-May 2026. These include retirements by several long-serving members, pushing the total Senate departures to eleven across both parties and marking one of the highest recent turnover rates. Recent weeks have seen no additional Republican exits or reversals, which has stabilized probabilities around this figure while leaving room for late-cycle shifts such as unexpected bids for other offices or primary challenges. Historical patterns of Senate retirements and the extended timeline until filing deadlines support the view that further changes remain possible before the market resolves.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$73,769End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The trader consensus favoring seven Republican senators not running for reelection in 2026 aligns with the seven confirmed announcements as of mid-May 2026. These include retirements by several long-serving members, pushing the total Senate departures to eleven across both parties and marking one of the highest recent turnover rates. Recent weeks have seen no additional Republican exits or reversals, which has stabilized probabilities around this figure while leaving room for late-cycle shifts such as unexpected bids for other offices or primary challenges. Historical patterns of Senate retirements and the extended timeline until filing deadlines support the view that further changes remain possible before the market resolves.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$73,769End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The trader consensus favoring seven Republican senators not running for reelection in 2026 aligns with the seven confirmed announcements as of mid-May 2026. These include retirements by several long-serving members, pushing the total Senate departures to eleven across both parties and marking one of the highest recent turnover rates. Recent weeks have seen no additional Republican exits or reversals, which has stabilized probabilities around this figure while leaving room for late-cycle shifts such as unexpected bids for other offices or primary challenges. Historical patterns of Senate retirements and the extended timeline until filing deadlines support the view that further changes remain possible before the market resolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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