Geopolitical risks from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict have compressed weekly vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving trader consensus toward the 20-39 ships outcome at 62% implied probability. Pre-conflict baselines of roughly 100 daily transits have fallen to single-digit or low-teen daily counts in early May amid naval blockades, elevated insurance premiums, and rerouting incentives, with recent data showing just 38 crossings in one tracked week—three times the prior week’s level. This positions the 40-59 band at 28% as a secondary possibility only if escorted corridors stabilize flows. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in mine-clearance operations or shifts in Iranian passage approvals, which could alter throughput before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?
20-39 62%
40-59 28%
60-79 4.8%
<20 3.6%
$92,988 Vol.
$92,988 Vol.
May 17, 2026
<20
4%
20-39
62%
40-59
28%
60-79
5%
80+
1%
20-39 62%
40-59 28%
60-79 4.8%
<20 3.6%
$92,988 Vol.
$92,988 Vol.
May 17, 2026
<20
$34,492 Vol.
4%
20-39
$15,109 Vol.
62%
40-59
$17,535 Vol.
28%
60-79
$13,099 Vol.
5%
80+
$12,752 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical risks from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict have compressed weekly vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving trader consensus toward the 20-39 ships outcome at 62% implied probability. Pre-conflict baselines of roughly 100 daily transits have fallen to single-digit or low-teen daily counts in early May amid naval blockades, elevated insurance premiums, and rerouting incentives, with recent data showing just 38 crossings in one tracked week—three times the prior week’s level. This positions the 40-59 band at 28% as a secondary possibility only if escorted corridors stabilize flows. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in mine-clearance operations or shifts in Iranian passage approvals, which could alter throughput before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
Volume
$92,988End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical risks from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict have compressed weekly vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving trader consensus toward the 20-39 ships outcome at 62% implied probability. Pre-conflict baselines of roughly 100 daily transits have fallen to single-digit or low-teen daily counts in early May amid naval blockades, elevated insurance premiums, and rerouting incentives, with recent data showing just 38 crossings in one tracked week—three times the prior week’s level. This positions the 40-59 band at 28% as a secondary possibility only if escorted corridors stabilize flows. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in mine-clearance operations or shifts in Iranian passage approvals, which could alter throughput before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$92,988End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Geopolitical risks from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict have compressed weekly vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving trader consensus toward the 20-39 ships outcome at 62% implied probability. Pre-conflict baselines of roughly 100 daily transits have fallen to single-digit or low-teen daily counts in early May amid naval blockades, elevated insurance premiums, and rerouting incentives, with recent data showing just 38 crossings in one tracked week—three times the prior week’s level. This positions the 40-59 band at 28% as a secondary possibility only if escorted corridors stabilize flows. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in mine-clearance operations or shifts in Iranian passage approvals, which could alter throughput before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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