Anthropic’s confidential S-1 filing in June and ongoing preparations for a Nasdaq listing have anchored trader expectations around an October 2026 debut, reflected in the 53.5% implied probability. Recent Reuters reporting shows the public prospectus now slated for late September and roadshow marketing targeted for mid-October at the earliest, with the offering still positioned to close before November midterms. Explosive revenue growth—annualized run rate exceeding $65 billion by July—and work on a $15 billion credit facility support the timeline while underscoring strong fundamentals. Potential $2 trillion valuation discussions and interest from underwriters plus Nvidia as a possible anchor investor further reinforce near-term momentum, though final execution remains subject to market conditions and regulatory steps.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOctober 2026 54%
November 2026 26.9%
December 2026 8.1%
January 2027 3.8%
$233,594 Vol.
$233,594 Vol.
September 2026
<1%
October 2026
54%
November 2026
27%
December 2026
8%
January 2027
4%
February 2027
1%
March 2027
3%
April 2027
<1%
May 2027
<1%
June 2027
<1%
July 2027
1%
August 2027
<1%
September 2027
<1%
October 2027
<1%
November 2027
<1%
December 2027
<1%
No IPO before 2028
1%
October 2026 54%
November 2026 26.9%
December 2026 8.1%
January 2027 3.8%
$233,594 Vol.
$233,594 Vol.
September 2026
<1%
October 2026
54%
November 2026
27%
December 2026
8%
January 2027
4%
February 2027
1%
March 2027
3%
April 2027
<1%
May 2027
<1%
June 2027
<1%
July 2027
1%
August 2027
<1%
September 2027
<1%
October 2027
<1%
November 2027
<1%
December 2027
<1%
No IPO before 2028
1%
An IPO refers to Anthropic shares becoming listed and open for trading on a public securities exchange, whether through a traditional initial public offering or a direct listing.
If Anthropic goes public through a merger, acquisition, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded, including a special purpose acquisition company, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.
Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...An IPO refers to Anthropic shares becoming listed and open for trading on a public securities exchange, whether through a traditional initial public offering or a direct listing.
If Anthropic goes public through a merger, acquisition, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded, including a special purpose acquisition company, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.
Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s confidential S-1 filing in June and ongoing preparations for a Nasdaq listing have anchored trader expectations around an October 2026 debut, reflected in the 53.5% implied probability. Recent Reuters reporting shows the public prospectus now slated for late September and roadshow marketing targeted for mid-October at the earliest, with the offering still positioned to close before November midterms. Explosive revenue growth—annualized run rate exceeding $65 billion by July—and work on a $15 billion credit facility support the timeline while underscoring strong fundamentals. Potential $2 trillion valuation discussions and interest from underwriters plus Nvidia as a possible anchor investor further reinforce near-term momentum, though final execution remains subject to market conditions and regulatory steps.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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