Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 94.5% implied probability for Iran agreeing to unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, driven by Tehran's recent formation of a new government agency to oversee and tax vessel passage, announced about a week ago, which underscores ongoing controls rather than full liberalization. This follows Iran's reimposition of limits—such as capping daily transits at around 15 vessels under a fragile ceasefire—while responding to the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports initiated in mid-April. No diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged from Tehran's review of U.S. proposals, with mutual threats of escalation persisting into early May, leaving muted traffic patterns intact and dimming prospects for an agreement absent major de-escalation signals before the deadline.