Syria's Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani stated on May 13 that Damascus seeks a comprehensive security agreement with Israel via U.S. mediation, demanding a full withdrawal to 1974 disengagement lines while rejecting imposed normalization, amid ongoing indirect talks initiated after Bashar al-Assad's 2024 ouster. President Ahmed al-Sharaa has affirmed seriousness about border stability to enable reconstruction, but negotiations stall over Israel's Golan Heights control, expanded buffer zones in southern Syria, and continued military operations against perceived threats. The EU's May 11 decision to restore trade ties supports Syria's reintegration, yet no diplomatic breakthrough has occurred in the past 30 days. With the June 30 deadline approaching, trader consensus reflects deep uncertainty over bridging these territorial and sovereignty disputes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSyria’s Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani says the country seeks “calm and stable” relations with Israel but warns that “armed militias from Lebanon” and Israel’s expanded buffer
Syria’s Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani says the country seeks “calm and stable” relations with Israel but warns that “armed militias from Lebanon” and Israel’s expanded buffer zone make a formal diplomatic announcement unlikely before the end of 2025
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani says Syria seeks “calm and stable” relations with Israel but warns of “armed militias” from Lebanon;
December 31, 2026 jumps to 13%5%
the comment underscores lingering security concerns and pushes the market to its lowest level
A senior Syrian source tells Reuters that internal political opposition to any Israel‑Syria deal is growing, pushing the market to its lowest point of 1 % “Yes” (no citation
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%3%
A senior Syrian source tells Reuters that internal political opposition to any Israel‑Syria deal is growing, pushing the market to its lowest point of 1 % “Yes” (no citation needed –
Al Jazeera reports that despite the communication cell, no concrete diplomatic milestones have been achieved and Israel continues limited incursions, pushing the “Yes” probability
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%4%
Al Jazeera reports that despite the communication cell, no concrete diplomatic milestones have been achieved and Israel continues limited incursions, pushing the “Yes” probability to a historic low
Syrian state news agency SANA reports that Israel has seized additional territory near the strategic Jabal al‑Sheikh mountain, prompting Syrian officials to declare the talks “on
December 31, 2026 rises to 15%4%
Syrian state news agency SANA reports that Israel has seized additional territory near the strategic Jabal al‑Sheikh mountain, prompting Syrian officials to declare the talks “on hold” until the Golan issue is resolved
U.S.‑brokered “fusion mechanism” officially activated, yet no concrete timetable for diplomatic recognition is announced;
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%1%
market interprets the activation as a technical step rather than a breakthrough, keeping the “Yes” probability at a low 3 %
No new diplomatic breakthrough reported;
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%1%
the latest joint statement from the United States reiterates commitment to the communication cell but makes no mention of an upcoming formal peace treaty, leaving the market at a historic low
No new diplomatic breakthroughs reported;
December 31, 2026 dips to 7%2%
analysts note that the buffer‑zone dispute remains unresolved and U.S. attention is shifting to other regional crises, driving the
U.S. envoy Tom Barrack announces that the “fusion mechanism” will focus only on intelligence sharing, with no concrete timetable for diplomatic normalization, confirming market
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%4%
U.S. envoy Tom Barrack announces that the “fusion mechanism” will focus only on intelligence sharing, with no concrete timetable for diplomatic normalization, confirming market participants’ belief that a Yes outcome is unlikely
The U.S. State Department reiterates that the joint intelligence‑sharing mechanism will not address “strategic files” until Israel withdraws from seized Syrian lands, cementing
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%2%
The U.S. State Department reiterates that the joint intelligence‑sharing mechanism will not address “strategic files” until Israel withdraws from seized Syrian lands, cementing market pessimism
U.N. Security Council adopts Resolution 2799, removing Syrian President al‑Sharaa from the UN sanctions list but simultaneously noting “no substantive progress” on Israel‑Syria
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%4%
U.N. Security Council adopts Resolution 2799, removing Syrian President al‑Sharaa from the UN sanctions list but simultaneously noting “no substantive progress” on Israel‑Syria normalization, reinforcing market pessimism
U.N. Security Council adopts Resolution 2799, removing Syrian President al‑Sharaa from the sanctions list, a diplomatic win for Damascus but still no formal Israel‑Syria
December 31, 2026 plunges to 7%20%
U.N. Security Council adopts Resolution 2799, removing Syrian President al‑Sharaa from the sanctions list, a diplomatic win for Damascus but still no formal Israel‑Syria diplomatic announcement, keeping odds low
A joint U.S.–Israel–Syria statement confirms that the intelligence‑sharing cell will remain “operational” but adds that “no concrete diplomatic agreement has been reached,”
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%14%
A joint U.S.–Israel–Syria statement confirms that the intelligence‑sharing cell will remain “operational” but adds that “no concrete diplomatic agreement has been reached,” cementing the market’s low‑confidence level
U.S. officials express frustration that Israel’s “expansionist mindset” is preventing progress on the fusion mechanism, confirming that no concrete diplomatic milestones have been
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%3%
U.S. officials express frustration that Israel’s “expansionist mindset” is preventing progress on the fusion mechanism, confirming that no concrete diplomatic milestones have been achieved
Syria’s foreign minister tells Reuters that without a clear timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal from seized Syrian territory, “strategic files” cannot move forward, sending the
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%3%
Syria’s foreign minister tells Reuters that without a clear timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal from seized Syrian territory, “strategic files” cannot move forward, sending the market to its lowest level
U.S.‑brokered talks in Paris end without a concrete timetable for Israeli troop withdrawal;
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%1%
both sides cite “fundamental differences” over sovereignty, pushing the market to its lowest level
U.S. State Department releases the joint statement confirming the Paris trilateral meeting and the establishment of the fusion mechanism, but notes that both sides “reaffirm
June 30, 2026 drops to 3%5%
U.S. State Department releases the joint statement confirming the Paris trilateral meeting and the establishment of the fusion mechanism, but notes that both sides “reaffirm commitment” without any timeline for a formal diplomatic agreement, leading the market to its lowest level
U.S. State Department reiterates that the communication mechanism is limited to intelligence sharing and commercial opportunities, not full diplomatic recognition, confirming
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%1%
U.S. State Department reiterates that the communication mechanism is limited to intelligence sharing and commercial opportunities, not full diplomatic recognition, confirming market expectations of a low “Yes” probability
Syria’s interim president al‑Sharaa announces that without a guaranteed Israeli pull‑back, “strategic cooperation” cannot proceed;
December 31, 2026 plunges to 11%16%
the statement is covered by major outlets as a “major setback” to any normalization timeline
EU restores a cooperation agreement with Syria after the 2024 regime change, but the EU statement notes that full normalization with Israel remains contingent on a new security
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%5%
EU restores a cooperation agreement with Syria after the 2024 regime change, but the EU statement notes that full normalization with Israel remains contingent on a new security pact, reinforcing bearish sentiment
Washington Institute publishes a January 2026 report warning that “Israel’s demand for full diplomatic relations remains a non‑starter for Damascus,” reinforcing analysts’ view
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%12%
Washington Institute publishes a January 2026 report warning that “Israel’s demand for full diplomatic relations remains a non‑starter for Damascus,” reinforcing analysts’ view that a formal normalization is unlikely before 2027
Al Jazeera notes that the U.S.‑brokered talks in Paris conclude with no formal announcement of diplomatic relations;
June 30, 2026 drops to 4%6%
both sides agree only to maintain the intelligence‑sharing cell, confirming market expectations of a low likelihood of normalization
Israeli‑Syrian talks in Paris resume after a month‑long hiatus, but both sides exchange firm statements: Israel demands a buffer zone, Syria demands full withdrawal, leading to a
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
Israeli‑Syrian talks in Paris resume after a month‑long hiatus, but both sides exchange firm statements: Israel demands a buffer zone, Syria demands full withdrawal, leading to a further dip in optimism
The Times of Israel reports that Israel has again demanded a “full diplomatic relationship” as a pre‑condition for any further economic talks, a demand that Syrian leaders have
June 30, 2026 drops to 4%6%
The Times of Israel reports that Israel has again demanded a “full diplomatic relationship” as a pre‑condition for any further economic talks, a demand that Syrian leaders have repeatedly rejected, pushing the probability down to near‑single digits
Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs publicly condemns a new Israeli airstrike on a Syrian military site, reviving fears that military incidents will continue to derail the
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%1%
Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs publicly condemns a new Israeli airstrike on a Syrian military site, reviving fears that military incidents will continue to derail the diplomatic track and sending the
Syria’s interim president reiterates that no diplomatic agreement will be signed until Israel withdraws from all occupied Golan territories, reinforcing the view that full
December 31, 2026 drops to 15%9%
Syria’s interim president reiterates that no diplomatic agreement will be signed until Israel withdraws from all occupied Golan territories, reinforcing the view that full normalization is unlikely before the end‑2025 deadline
UN Security Council meeting notes that Syrian representatives stress continued “very tense” conditions on the border and reject any diplomatic deal lacking Israeli withdrawal,
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%13%
UN Security Council meeting notes that Syrian representatives stress continued “very tense” conditions on the border and reject any diplomatic deal lacking Israeli withdrawal, sending the
UN‑mediated talks stall again as both sides cite “non‑starter” demands;
June 30, 2026 drops to 4%5%
analysts note the likelihood of any formal normalization before year‑end is minimal, pushing the
UN‑backed talks in Paris produce no new breakthroughs;
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%14%
Syrian representatives stress that “Syria shares no borders with Israel” and demand Israeli withdrawal, reinforcing market pessimism
Joint statement from the United States, Israel and Syria reiterates commitment to a “fusion mechanism” but no formal diplomatic announcement;
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%10%
the market slides further as expectations wane
Analysis from Texas A&M highlights that the communication cell is the only concrete outcome of the latest round of talks and warns that hostilities in Aleppo could derail any
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
Analysis from Texas A&M highlights that the communication cell is the only concrete outcome of the latest round of talks and warns that hostilities in Aleppo could derail any further progress, pushing the
Syria’s interim government issues a statement that “no diplomatic agreement will be signed before Israel withdraws from all occupied Syrian territories,” effectively ruling out
June 30, 2026 drops to 2%5%
Syria’s interim government issues a statement that “no diplomatic agreement will be signed before Israel withdraws from all occupied Syrian territories,” effectively ruling out any formal normalization before the end‑2025 deadline
Israeli Defense Forces seize additional territory near the strategic Jabal al‑Sheikh mountain, prompting Syrian officials to declare the “communication cell” ineffective without a
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Israeli Defense Forces seize additional territory near the strategic Jabal al‑Sheikh mountain, prompting Syrian officials to declare the “communication cell” ineffective without a security guarantee, pushing the
Syrian officials publicly state that any “strategic” agreement is impossible without a clear Israeli withdrawal, reiterating the core demand that stalls any full‑normalisation
June 30, 2026 drops to 4%5%
Syrian officials publicly state that any “strategic” agreement is impossible without a clear Israeli withdrawal, reiterating the core demand that stalls any full‑normalisation talks
Middle East Eye reports that Syrian President al‑Sharaa publicly rules out any normalization with Israel in the near term, despite ongoing U.S.
June 30, 2026 drops to 2%6%
mediation, pushing the market to its lowest point
Israel‑Syria talks experience a brief uptick after both sides agree to hold frequent meetings on security issues, but the announcement is limited to “security dialogue” with no
June 30, 2026 dips to 8%2%
Israel‑Syria talks experience a brief uptick after both sides agree to hold frequent meetings on security issues, but the announcement is limited to “security dialogue” with no mention of formal diplomatic recognition
U.S.‑backed talks in Paris stall after Israel demands immediate recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights;
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
Syrian negotiators walk out, citing “unacceptable” conditions
Syrian officials publicly state that no diplomatic agreement will be possible without a clear timeline for Israeli withdrawal from occupied Golan territories, reinforcing market
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%2%
Syrian officials publicly state that no diplomatic agreement will be possible without a clear timeline for Israeli withdrawal from occupied Golan territories, reinforcing market pessimism
Washington Post analysis notes that despite the communication cell, Israel’s continued expansion of the buffer zone in southern Syria and new incursions near the Golan Heights
June 30, 2026 dips to 7%3%
Washington Post analysis notes that despite the communication cell, Israel’s continued expansion of the buffer zone in southern Syria and new incursions near the Golan Heights have revived Syrian security concerns, further eroding confidence in a diplomatic breakthrough
U.S. envoy Tom Barrack meets Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al‑Shaibani in Damascus, reaffirming U.S.
June 30, 2026 dips to 7%2%
support for a diplomatic solution but emphasizing that Israel must halt expansionist moves; analysts interpret this as a stall, nudging the
The United States releases a joint statement confirming that Israel and Syria have reaffirmed commitment to “lasting security and stability” and have established the joint fusion
June 30, 2026 rises to 9%4%
The United States releases a joint statement confirming that Israel and Syria have reaffirmed commitment to “lasting security and stability” and have established the joint fusion mechanism, but the wording is deliberately vague, leading to a modest
A joint Israeli‑Syrian intelligence‑fusion cell is launched under U.S.
June 30, 2026 dips to 7%2%
oversight, but the launch is framed as a “confidence‑building measure” rather than a step toward full diplomatic relations, leading traders to view it as a dead‑end for normalization
UN Security Council briefing notes that the situation remains “very tense” and that Israel continues to expand settlements in the occupied Golan, underscoring the lack of any
June 30, 2026 rises to 10%2%
UN Security Council briefing notes that the situation remains “very tense” and that Israel continues to expand settlements in the occupied Golan, underscoring the lack of any diplomatic breakthrough
The Times of Israel reports that Israeli military operations near the Golan Heights intensify, contradicting diplomatic overtures and leading traders to cut the “Yes” probability
June 30, 2026 rises to 10%1%
The Times of Israel reports that Israeli military operations near the Golan Heights intensify, contradicting diplomatic overtures and leading traders to cut the “Yes” probability further
Washington Institute releases a briefing noting that while the intelligence‑sharing mechanism remains active, “no concrete steps toward diplomatic recognition have been taken,”
June 30, 2026 rises to 10%4%
Washington Institute releases a briefing noting that while the intelligence‑sharing mechanism remains active, “no concrete steps toward diplomatic recognition have been taken,” reinforcing market pessimism
UN Security Council briefing (UN Press) highlights that Israel continues to press for a demilitarised zone south of Damascus, while Syria insists on full Golan‑Heights withdrawal
June 30, 2026 dips to 8%1%
UN Security Council briefing (UN Press) highlights that Israel continues to press for a demilitarised zone south of Damascus, while Syria insists on full Golan‑Heights withdrawal before any diplomatic step, underscoring a fundamental impasse
UN Security Council briefing notes “very tense” Israel‑Syria border situation and cites recent Israeli raids, reinforcing market perception that security concerns dominate and a
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%3%
UN Security Council briefing notes “very tense” Israel‑Syria border situation and cites recent Israeli raids, reinforcing market perception that security concerns dominate and a full diplomatic pact remains unlikely
Israeli raids in southern Syria capture weapons caches;
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%4%
Syrian officials accuse Israel of “undermining” the nascent intelligence‑sharing mechanism, prompting a sharp
Israeli airstrikes hit Syria’s Defence Ministry headquarters (July 2025) are referenced in a new Al Jazeera briefing, reviving fears that military clashes will derail the
December 31, 2026 jumps to 23%13%
Israeli airstrikes hit Syria’s Defence Ministry headquarters (July 2025) are referenced in a new Al Jazeera briefing, reviving fears that military clashes will derail the diplomatic process
The Times of Israel reports that Israel’s senior negotiators replace the former strategic affairs minister with a new team led by Ambassador Yechiel Leiter, signaling a slowdown
December 31, 2026 jumps to 25%11%
The Times of Israel reports that Israel’s senior negotiators replace the former strategic affairs minister with a new team led by Ambassador Yechiel Leiter, signaling a slowdown in talks and prompting a modest
Israel‑Syria “joint fusion mechanism” formally activated, but both sides stress it is limited to intelligence and de‑escalation;
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%3%
no announcement of diplomatic relations follows
A new round of talks begins in Paris with fresh Israeli demands for a Syrian withdrawal;
December 31, 2026 jumps to 24%10%
analysts interpret the talks as a “hardening” of Israel’s position, pushing the
A trilateral meeting in Paris produces a joint statement confirming the communication cell will continue under U.S.
December 31, 2026 jumps to 28%14%
supervision, briefly lifting the
Israeli airstrike on Syria’s Defence Ministry headquarters (July 2025) is revisited in a UN‑Security‑Council briefing, reigniting tensions and prompting Syrian officials to label
December 31, 2026 rises to 27%4%
Israeli airstrike on Syria’s Defence Ministry headquarters (July 2025) is revisited in a UN‑Security‑Council briefing, reigniting tensions and prompting Syrian officials to label the intelligence‑fusion talks “premature”
A Syrian government spokesperson announces that without a “clear, enforceable timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal,” any progress on diplomatic normalization is “impossible,”
June 30, 2026 drops to 9%8%
A Syrian government spokesperson announces that without a “clear, enforceable timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal,” any progress on diplomatic normalization is “impossible,” causing the market to slide again
Syrian officials publicly state that any further cooperation hinges on a “clear and enforceable timeline” for Israeli withdrawal from occupied Syrian territory, underscoring a
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
Syrian officials publicly state that any further cooperation hinges on a “clear and enforceable timeline” for Israeli withdrawal from occupied Syrian territory, underscoring a major obstacle to full diplomatic ties
U.S. sanctions on Syrian officials are lifted after a UN Security Council vote, but Syrian leaders reiterate that any agreement must include Israeli withdrawal from occupied Golan
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
U.S. sanctions on Syrian officials are lifted after a UN Security Council vote, but Syrian leaders reiterate that any agreement must include Israeli withdrawal from occupied Golan territories, reinforcing the stalemate
Syrian interim authorities announce that they will not consider any diplomatic pact until Israel fully withdraws from the Golan Heights and the newly seized Jabal al‑Sheikh
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
Syrian interim authorities announce that they will not consider any diplomatic pact until Israel fully withdraws from the Golan Heights and the newly seized Jabal al‑Sheikh mountain, reaffirming a pre‑December 8 border
Syrian officials reiterate that any “strategic files” (including full diplomatic recognition) cannot move forward without a binding timetable for Israeli withdrawal from occupied
June 30, 2026 dips to 7%2%
Syrian officials reiterate that any “strategic files” (including full diplomatic recognition) cannot move forward without a binding timetable for Israeli withdrawal from occupied Syrian territory, a statement that stalls momentum and pushes the
U.S. State Department releases a joint statement confirming the “joint fusion mechanism” and reiterating that the parties have not agreed on a formal diplomatic exchange,
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
U.S. State Department releases a joint statement confirming the “joint fusion mechanism” and reiterating that the parties have not agreed on a formal diplomatic exchange, reinforcing the view that talks remain limited to security
Syrian Foreign Minister Al‑Shibani publicly states that “no security agreement will be signed until Israel withdraws from the Golan Heights,” reinforcing the stalemate and pushing
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
Syrian Foreign Minister Al‑Shibani publicly states that “no security agreement will be signed until Israel withdraws from the Golan Heights,” reinforcing the stalemate and pushing the market below 10 %
Syrian officials publicly state that any progress on “strategic files” is impossible without a clear timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal from occupied Syrian territory, pulling
December 31, 2026 drops to 9%13%
Syrian officials publicly state that any progress on “strategic files” is impossible without a clear timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal from occupied Syrian territory, pulling the
Senior U.S. official claims the security agreement is “99% complete” but an Israeli demand for a humanitarian corridor stalls the deal;
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
the market reacts negatively, dropping to a new low
U.S. officials express frustration after Israel’s “Beit Jinn” raid;
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%6%
Syrian Foreign Ministry condemns the action as a “fait accompli” on the frontier, pushing the market down to its lowest level
U.S. State Department reiterates that progress on the intelligence‑sharing mechanism is “impossible without a enforceable timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal,” causing a sharp
December 31, 2026 drops to 10%12%
U.S. State Department reiterates that progress on the intelligence‑sharing mechanism is “impossible without a enforceable timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal,” causing a sharp drop in market confidence
Israeli forces conduct a raid in southern Syria, killing 13 civilians;
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%3%
Syrian officials label the action a “serious violation” and suspend further talks, driving the “Yes”
U.S. State Department announces the establishment of a dedicated communication line between Israel and Syria, but a Syrian official warns that progress on “strategic files”
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%8%
U.S. State Department announces the establishment of a dedicated communication line between Israel and Syria, but a Syrian official warns that progress on “strategic files” (including border withdrawal) is impossible without a clear timetable
Syrian President al‑Sharaa meets Turkish President Erdogan in Ankara, underscoring Syria’s pivot toward regional partners and away from a quick Israel deal, further weakening the
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
Syrian President al‑Sharaa meets Turkish President Erdogan in Ankara, underscoring Syria’s pivot toward regional partners and away from a quick Israel deal, further weakening the “Yes” odds
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets Syrian interim President al‑Sharaa in Ankara, signaling broader regional support for Syrian‑Israeli talks and briefly lifting market
December 31, 2026 drops to 12%9%
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets Syrian interim President al‑Sharaa in Ankara, signaling broader regional support for Syrian‑Israeli talks and briefly lifting market optimism
Turkish President Erdogan meets al‑Sharaa in Ankara;
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
Turkey warns that any Israel‑Syria deal must respect Syrian sovereignty, adding regional pressure against rapid normalization
Syrian interim President al‑Sharaa meets Turkish President Erdoğan in Ankara, prompting speculation that Syria may seek a regional balancing act and could delay any Israel‑Syria
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%6%
Syrian interim President al‑Sharaa meets Turkish President Erdoğan in Ankara, prompting speculation that Syria may seek a regional balancing act and could delay any Israel‑Syria deal
Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu reiterates demand for a demilitarised buffer zone extending from Damascus to Jabal al‑Sheikh;
June 30, 2026 rises to 16%4%
Syrian officials label the demand “unacceptable,” causing a brief rally in skepticism
Syrian officials warn that without a clear timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal, progress on “strategic files” (including full diplomatic ties) is impossible, sending the market
June 30, 2026 drops to 9%5%
Syrian officials warn that without a clear timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal, progress on “strategic files” (including full diplomatic ties) is impossible, sending the market sharply lower
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announces a reshuffle of the negotiation team, replacing the previous lead with the ambassador to the U.S.;
June 30, 2026 dips to 8%1%
observers interpret the move as a sign of stalled progress and a hardening Israeli stance
Israeli Defense Forces launch a large‑scale airstrike on Syria’s Defence Ministry headquarters in Damascus, reigniting hostilities and prompting Syrian officials to suspend all
June 30, 2026 dips to 8%4%
Israeli Defense Forces launch a large‑scale airstrike on Syria’s Defence Ministry headquarters in Damascus, reigniting hostilities and prompting Syrian officials to suspend all diplomatic contacts
The Jerusalem Post publishes that the U.S.‑supervised fusion cell is operational, yet Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly reiterates that “full diplomatic relations will
June 30, 2026 jumps to 17%5%
The Jerusalem Post publishes that the U.S.‑supervised fusion cell is operational, yet Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly reiterates that “full diplomatic relations will only follow a complete Israeli withdrawal,” prompting a further drop in confidence
Syrian officials publicly reject Israel’s demand for a full diplomatic recognition, insisting that any normalization must be tied to a clear Israeli withdrawal from territories
December 31, 2026 dips to 26%4%
Syrian officials publicly reject Israel’s demand for a full diplomatic recognition, insisting that any normalization must be tied to a clear Israeli withdrawal from territories seized after December 2024
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu replaces the strategic affairs minister and appoints a new head of the Israeli delegation, signaling a hard‑line shift that dampens normalization
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%2%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu replaces the strategic affairs minister and appoints a new head of the Israeli delegation, signaling a hard‑line shift that dampens normalization hopes
Israeli‑Syrian talks resume in Paris under U.S.
June 30, 2026 rises to 16%2%
mediation, but the joint statement again limits cooperation to security and commercial coordination, not formal diplomatic ties
Israeli Defense Forces launch a new incursion into southern Syria, capturing the village of Al‑Adnaniyah;
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%7%
Syrian President al‑Sharaa condemns the action and says any diplomatic progress is “off‑track,” pushing the
Syrian officials publicly state that any further progress is impossible without a clear timeline for Israeli withdrawal from territories seized after the 2024 regime change,
December 31, 2026 drops to 20%8%
Syrian officials publicly state that any further progress is impossible without a clear timeline for Israeli withdrawal from territories seized after the 2024 regime change, dampening market optimism
Texas A&M analysis notes the “fifth round” of talks and the April 1 2025 Aleppo de‑escalation agreement, but warns that recent hostilities in Aleppo could derail progress,
June 30, 2026 dips to 13%2%
Texas A&M analysis notes the “fifth round” of talks and the April 1 2025 Aleppo de‑escalation agreement, but warns that recent hostilities in Aleppo could derail progress, contributing to a modest
U.S.‑Israel‑Syria trilateral meeting in Paris results in a joint statement confirming the communication cell and pledging “lasting security and stability,” yet stops short of any
December 31, 2026 jumps to 21%8%
U.S.‑Israel‑Syria trilateral meeting in Paris results in a joint statement confirming the communication cell and pledging “lasting security and stability,” yet stops short of any diplomatic recognition, causing a modest rebound
Texas A&M analysis highlights the “Aleppo agreement” (April 1 2025) as a precedent but warns that renewed fighting in Aleppo threatens the fragile Israel‑Syria engagement,
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%14%
Texas A&M analysis highlights the “Aleppo agreement” (April 1 2025) as a precedent but warns that renewed fighting in Aleppo threatens the fragile Israel‑Syria engagement, dampening market sentiment
Al Jazeera analysis notes that despite the new mechanism, Israel’s demand for a demilitarised buffer zone and Syrian insistence on full withdrawal keep the normalization prospect
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
Al Jazeera analysis notes that despite the new mechanism, Israel’s demand for a demilitarised buffer zone and Syrian insistence on full withdrawal keep the normalization prospect “far from reality”
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announces the appointment of a new senior Israeli negotiating team (led by Ambassador Yechiel Leiter) after the resignation of Strategic Affairs
June 30, 2026 dips to 12%4%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announces the appointment of a new senior Israeli negotiating team (led by Ambassador Yechiel Leiter) after the resignation of Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, signalling a fresh diplomatic push and nudging the
Al Jazeera summarises the Paris deal, emphasizing that only intelligence‑sharing and de‑escalation were agreed, with no commitment to diplomatic recognition, reinforcing market
June 30, 2026 drops to 14%5%
Al Jazeera summarises the Paris deal, emphasizing that only intelligence‑sharing and de‑escalation were agreed, with no commitment to diplomatic recognition, reinforcing market scepticism
Further analysis (Al Jazeera) notes that Israel immediately called for a suspension of all Israeli strikes against Syria as part of the new mechanism, but Damascus rejected any
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%2%
Further analysis (Al Jazeera) notes that Israel immediately called for a suspension of all Israeli strikes against Syria as part of the new mechanism, but Damascus rejected any cease‑fire without a withdrawal from the Golan Heights, raising doubts about any path to full relations
Israeli‑Syrian officials meet in Paris and agree to a joint intelligence‑sharing mechanism;
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%1%
the news lifts sentiment, producing a modest
Al Jazeera publishes a “Everything you need to know” guide to the Paris talks, emphasizing that Israel now demands full diplomatic relations—a condition Syria says is “not
June 30, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Al Jazeera publishes a “Everything you need to know” guide to the Paris talks, emphasizing that Israel now demands full diplomatic relations—a condition Syria says is “not currently on the cards,” further eroding confidence
Israel and Syria agree to set up a dedicated communication line (joint “fusion mechanism”) under U.S.
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%2%
supervision, but the statement notes that progress on “strategic files” remains blocked by Israel’s demand for troop withdrawal
Israel and Syria agree to a dedicated U.S.‑supervised “communication cell” for ongoing intelligence sharing, but Syrian officials stress that any strategic deal hinges on Israel
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%7%
Israel and Syria agree to a dedicated U.S.‑supervised “communication cell” for ongoing intelligence sharing, but Syrian officials stress that any strategic deal hinges on Israel withdrawing from territories seized since December 2024
Israel and Syria agree in Paris to create a “joint fusion mechanism” for intelligence sharing and de‑escalation, but the statement emphasizes that the arrangement is limited to
June 30, 2026 rises to 16%2%
Israel and Syria agree in Paris to create a “joint fusion mechanism” for intelligence sharing and de‑escalation, but the statement emphasizes that the arrangement is limited to security coordination, not full normalization
Al Jazeera reports that the same Paris talks also include a U.S.‑supervised “dedicated communication line,” yet both sides stress that the agreement does not include an official
June 30, 2026 drops to 11%5%
Al Jazeera reports that the same Paris talks also include a U.S.‑supervised “dedicated communication line,” yet both sides stress that the agreement does not include an official diplomatic exchange, dampening market optimism
Israel and Syria sign a limited agreement to maintain the “dedicated communication cell” under U.S.
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%3%
supervision, but the text explicitly states that “strategic files” such as border demarcation remain unresolved
Israel‑Syria “renew diplomatic dialogue” after months of silence, but no concrete agreement is announced;
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
the market interprets this as a stall and the
U.S. State Department releases a joint statement confirming the establishment of the “joint fusion mechanism” – a dedicated communication line – but notes that strategic issues
June 30, 2026 rises to 16%2%
U.S. State Department releases a joint statement confirming the establishment of the “joint fusion mechanism” – a dedicated communication line – but notes that strategic issues (e.g., Israeli withdrawal) remain unresolved
Al Jazeera reports that the newly created communication cell is operational, yet a senior Syrian official (anonymous) tells Reuters the mechanism cannot address “strategic files”
June 30, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Al Jazeera reports that the newly created communication cell is operational, yet a senior Syrian official (anonymous) tells Reuters the mechanism cannot address “strategic files” without Israel’s withdrawal, dampening expectations of full normalization
Israel and Syria resume diplomatic dialogue in Jerusalem, agreeing to continue talks on security and economic cooperation but leaving the core issue of Israeli troop withdrawal
December 31, 2026 dips to 29%2%
Israel and Syria resume diplomatic dialogue in Jerusalem, agreeing to continue talks on security and economic cooperation but leaving the core issue of Israeli troop withdrawal unresolved
U.S. State Department releases a joint statement confirming the establishment of a “dedicated communication cell” for intelligence sharing and de‑escalation, a concrete step
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%1%
U.S. State Department releases a joint statement confirming the establishment of a “dedicated communication cell” for intelligence sharing and de‑escalation, a concrete step toward normalization
Israel and Syria agree to set up a U.S‑supervised “dedicated communication line” for intelligence sharing and de‑escalation, a concrete institutional step that briefly revives
June 30, 2026 rises to 16%2%
Israel and Syria agree to set up a U.S‑supervised “dedicated communication line” for intelligence sharing and de‑escalation, a concrete institutional step that briefly revives optimism and pushes the
Al Jazeera reports that the newly created intelligence‑sharing cell is “operational but hampered by Syrian demands for Israeli troop withdrawal,” leading analysts to downgrade the
June 30, 2026 drops to 12%10%
Al Jazeera reports that the newly created intelligence‑sharing cell is “operational but hampered by Syrian demands for Israeli troop withdrawal,” leading analysts to downgrade the likelihood of a formal diplomatic announcement
U.S. State Department releases a joint statement confirming the “dedicated communication cell” but notes that Syria will not discuss “strategic files” without a binding Israeli
June 30, 2026 dips to 19%2%
U.S. State Department releases a joint statement confirming the “dedicated communication cell” but notes that Syria will not discuss “strategic files” without a binding Israeli withdrawal timetable, dampening hopes for full normalization
Al Jazeera reports that Israel and Syria formally establish the “dedicated communication cell” for intelligence and de‑escalation;
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%4%
analysts describe it as a “security‑only” framework, not a step toward full normalization, nudging the
Israel and Syria agree to set up a “dedicated communication line” in U.S‑brokered talks, reaffirming the intelligence‑fusion cell and promising “immediate coordination” on
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%3%
Israel and Syria agree to set up a “dedicated communication line” in U.S‑brokered talks, reaffirming the intelligence‑fusion cell and promising “immediate coordination” on security and commercial matters
Israel and Syria agree to set up a dedicated U.S.–supervised communication line, but a Syrian source tells Reuters the mechanism cannot advance “strategic files” without Israeli
June 30, 2026 dips to 14%4%
Israel and Syria agree to set up a dedicated U.S.–supervised communication line, but a Syrian source tells Reuters the mechanism cannot advance “strategic files” without Israeli troop withdrawal, underscoring persistent dead‑lock
Israel and Syria sign a U.S.‑brokered agreement on a dedicated communication line for intelligence sharing and de‑escalation, but Syrian officials stress that withdrawal of
June 30, 2026 plunges to 31%17%
Israel and Syria sign a U.S.‑brokered agreement on a dedicated communication line for intelligence sharing and de‑escalation, but Syrian officials stress that withdrawal of Israeli troops is a prerequisite for any “strategic” deal
Al Jazeera reports that Israel and Syria agree to set up the “dedicated communication line” under U.S.
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%7%
supervision, but a Syrian official warns that without a concrete Israeli withdrawal timeline the deal cannot move to “strategic files,” dampening expectations
Israel and Syria agree to a “dedicated communication line” under U.S.
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%2%
supervision, but Syrian sources say no timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal is set, dampening hopes for a full diplomatic breakthrough
Israel and Syria formally agree to set up the dedicated communication line under U.S.
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%4%
supervision, but Syrian sources stress that any “strategic” diplomatic progress remains impossible without Israeli troop pull‑back
Israel and Syria agree to a U.S‑supervised “dedicated communication line” for intelligence sharing, but the statement makes clear that “strategic files” such as a formal peace
June 30, 2026 dips to 10%4%
Israel and Syria agree to a U.S‑supervised “dedicated communication line” for intelligence sharing, but the statement makes clear that “strategic files” such as a formal peace treaty remain on hold pending Israeli withdrawal from occupied Golan areas
Israel and Syria agree to a dedicated communication line under U.S.
December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%17%
supervision, but Syrian officials stress that any “strategic file” requires a clear timetable for Israeli withdrawal from occupied Golan territories
Al Jazeera reports that Israel and Syria agree to a “dedicated communication line” for intelligence and de‑escalation, but Syrian officials stress that “strategic files such as
June 30, 2026 drops to 12%8%
Al Jazeera reports that Israel and Syria agree to a “dedicated communication line” for intelligence and de‑escalation, but Syrian officials stress that “strategic files such as full diplomatic ties remain blocked until Israel withdraws from the Golan”
U.S. State Department releases the joint statement confirming the “dedicated communication cell,” but notes that Syria will not move forward on “strategic files” without a binding
June 30, 2026 dips to 14%3%
U.S. State Department releases the joint statement confirming the “dedicated communication cell,” but notes that Syria will not move forward on “strategic files” without a binding timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal
U.S.‑brokered “dedicated communication line” agreement is signed, but a senior Syrian source tells Reuters that “without a clear timeline for Israeli withdrawal from occupied
U.S.‑brokered “dedicated communication line” agreement is signed, but a senior Syrian source tells Reuters that “without a clear timeline for Israeli withdrawal from occupied Golan areas, strategic talks are dead‑locked”
Reuters notes that senior Israeli and Syrian delegations meet in Paris under U.S.
June 30, 2026 rises to 20%2%
auspices; however, the talks end without a concrete timeline for diplomatic normalization, reinforcing market doubts
President Trump publicly states that “nothing should interfere with Syria’s evolution,” but Israel’s continued raids in the Golan Heights are highlighted by U.S. officials as a
June 30, 2026 dips to 10%2%
President Trump publicly states that “nothing should interfere with Syria’s evolution,” but Israel’s continued raids in the Golan Heights are highlighted by U.S. officials as a major obstacle
President Trump meets Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at Mar‑a‑Lago, reiterating his “Middle East peace” plan that includes full Israel‑Syria normalization;
December 31, 2026 jumps to 31%9%
the meeting briefly lifts market optimism
U.S.‑mediated statement from Paris highlights a “dedicated communication line” but notes Syrian insistence on Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights before any strategic
June 30, 2026 drops to 13%7%
U.S.‑mediated statement from Paris highlights a “dedicated communication line” but notes Syrian insistence on Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights before any strategic agreement, reinforcing market skepticism
President Trump meets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar‑a‑Lago, publicly stating that “Israel must maintain a strong dialogue with Syria” and that a diplomatic
December 31, 2026 jumps to 33%9%
President Trump meets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar‑a‑Lago, publicly stating that “Israel must maintain a strong dialogue with Syria” and that a diplomatic breakthrough is expected “soon”
President Trump meets Netanyahu at Mar‑a‑Lago and publicly states that Israel must maintain “a strong and true dialogue” with Syria, but no concrete diplomatic steps are
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%3%
President Trump meets Netanyahu at Mar‑a‑Lago and publicly states that Israel must maintain “a strong and true dialogue” with Syria, but no concrete diplomatic steps are announced, dampening market optimism
President Trump meets Netanyahu at Mar‑a‑Lago and urges a restart of talks;
June 30, 2026 drops to 13%6%
the announcement is quickly undercut by renewed Israeli raids near the Golan, sending the
Trump meets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar‑a‑Lago and urges a restart of talks;
June 30, 2026 drops to 21%7%
the meeting is followed by reports that Israel demands full diplomatic relations, a step Syria says it is not ready to take
President Trump meets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar‑a‑Lago and publicly states that “Israel must maintain a true dialogue with Syria,” raising expectations of a
December 31, 2026 surges to 45%19%
President Trump meets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar‑a‑Lago and publicly states that “Israel must maintain a true dialogue with Syria,” raising expectations of a diplomatic breakthrough
Trump meets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar‑a‑Lago and reiterates U.S.
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%4%
pressure on Israel to agree to full diplomatic ties, but Israel’s senior officials later state that the demand for a “buffer zone” remains non‑negotiable, sending the
Syria’s interim president Ahmed al‑Sharaa reiterates at the COP30 climate conference in Brazil that “a security agreement is advanced, but full diplomatic ties are not yet
December 31, 2026 surges to 45%15%
Syria’s interim president Ahmed al‑Sharaa reiterates at the COP30 climate conference in Brazil that “a security agreement is advanced, but full diplomatic ties are not yet possible,” prompting a sharp
President Trump publicly declares “nothing should interfere with Syria’s evolution,” and the U.S.
December 31, 2026 drops to 20%10%
reiterates support for a security pact, briefly reviving expectations and pushing the
U.S. mediation falters when Israeli officials again demand a humanitarian corridor;
December 31, 2026 plunges to 20%25%
Syrian officials reiterate the demand will “harm sovereignty,” triggering a sharp
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hosts U.S.
December 31, 2026 dips to 22%4%
envoy Tom Barrack in Jerusalem, but announces a reshuffle that replaces the chief negotiator, signaling a slowdown in talks
President Trump publicly declares that “nothing should interfere with Syria’s evolution into a prosperous state,” prompting a brief rebound in market confidence that a diplomatic
December 31, 2026 jumps to 32%9%
President Trump publicly declares that “nothing should interfere with Syria’s evolution into a prosperous state,” prompting a brief rebound in market confidence that a diplomatic breakthrough could still occur
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hosts U.S.
December 31, 2026 jumps to 30%6%
envoy Tom Barrack in Jerusalem, confirming that Israel now demands full diplomatic relations—a demand Syria publicly says it cannot meet
Israel‑Syria talks in Paris stall after Israel pushes for full diplomatic relations;
December 31, 2026 surges to 45%22%
Syria says this is “not currently on the cards,” leading to a 24‑point swing upward as markets reassess optimism
Israel conducts a large‑scale raid near the Golan Heights, killing 13 Syrians;
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%8%
Syrian officials condemn the operation as a “serious violation” and reject Israel’s demand for a humanitarian corridor
A joint Israeli‑Syrian intelligence‑sharing “fusion mechanism” is announced, but the statement includes a clause that “the agreement remains contingent on Israel’s withdrawal from
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%4%
A joint Israeli‑Syrian intelligence‑sharing “fusion mechanism” is announced, but the statement includes a clause that “the agreement remains contingent on Israel’s withdrawal from occupied Golan territories,” underscoring the stalemate
Israeli troops conduct a large‑scale operation inside Syrian territory near Sweida, prompting Syrian officials to claim the “security‑first” approach of Israel is blocking any
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%4%
Israeli troops conduct a large‑scale operation inside Syrian territory near Sweida, prompting Syrian officials to claim the “security‑first” approach of Israel is blocking any diplomatic progress
Israel expands its buffer zone in southern Syria, prompting U.S.
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%4%
frustration and a market sell‑off as the prospect of full diplomatic ties dims
Israel and Syria agree on a “fusion mechanism” for intelligence sharing and commercial cooperation, but the statement makes clear that full diplomatic relations remain off the
June 30, 2026 dips to 21%3%
Israel and Syria agree on a “fusion mechanism” for intelligence sharing and commercial cooperation, but the statement makes clear that full diplomatic relations remain off the table
Israeli air strikes hit the Syrian Defence Ministry headquarters in Damascus, prompting Syrian officials to accuse Israel of “bad faith” and suspend the newly created
June 30, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Israeli air strikes hit the Syrian Defence Ministry headquarters in Damascus, prompting Syrian officials to accuse Israel of “bad faith” and suspend the newly created communication line
Snowfall on Mount Hermon is reported alongside continued Israeli‑Syrian border skirmishes, reinforcing the perception that security tensions remain high and dampening hopes of a
June 30, 2026 rises to 21%3%
Snowfall on Mount Hermon is reported alongside continued Israeli‑Syrian border skirmishes, reinforcing the perception that security tensions remain high and dampening hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough
Israeli airstrike on Syria’s Defence Ministry headquarters in Damascus reignites hostilities;
June 30, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Syrian officials blame Israel for “undermining the peace process”
Israeli troops conduct a limited incursion near Sweida, prompting Syrian officials to reject Israel’s request for a humanitarian corridor and to reiterate that “full diplomatic
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%4%
Israeli troops conduct a limited incursion near Sweida, prompting Syrian officials to reject Israel’s request for a humanitarian corridor and to reiterate that “full diplomatic relations are not on the agenda,” causing a short‑term
Israeli airstrike on Syria’s Defence Ministry headquarters in Damascus reignites tensions;
June 30, 2026 rises to 21%3%
Syrian officials condemn the attack as a violation of the nascent security framework
Israel‑Syria talks in Paris stall after Israel insists on full diplomatic recognition;
June 30, 2026 jumps to 22%6%
Syrian delegation walks out, citing “unacceptable Israeli preconditions”
Israeli forces conduct a raid near the Golan Heights that kills 13 Syrians;
December 31, 2026 drops to 24%7%
President Trump publicly rebukes Israel on Truth Social, warning that further strikes could “undermine Syria’s evolution”
Israeli air strikes hit Damascus Defence Ministry headquarters;
December 31, 2026 drops to 29%14%
Syrian officials warn the communication cell cannot advance “strategic files” without a clear Israeli withdrawal timetable
Syrian state news agency SANA reports that Damascus rejected Israel’s demand for full diplomatic relations, insisting that Israeli troops must withdraw from the Golan Heights
December 31, 2026 dips to 23%3%
Syrian state news agency SANA reports that Damascus rejected Israel’s demand for full diplomatic relations, insisting that Israeli troops must withdraw from the Golan Heights before any further progress, causing a sharp drop in optimism
Release of a joint statement confirming a “dedicated communication cell” under U.S.
December 31, 2026 jumps to 34%11%
supervision, renewing optimism and lifting the
Israeli officials publicly demand full diplomatic relations and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Syrian territory seized after the Dec 8 2024 overthrow, prompting Syrian
December 31, 2026 surges to 40%17%
Israeli officials publicly demand full diplomatic relations and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Syrian territory seized after the Dec 8 2024 overthrow, prompting Syrian officials to say the demand “is not currently on the cards”
U.S. President Donald Trump meets Netanyahu at Mar‑a‑Lago and re‑affirms U.S.
December 31, 2026 surges to 39%17%
backing for Israel‑Syria dialogue, temporarily boosting optimism
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu visits the Israeli‑occupied Golan Heights and urges the United States to press Syria on a humanitarian corridor, reigniting Israeli hard‑line
December 31, 2026 drops to 27%6%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu visits the Israeli‑occupied Golan Heights and urges the United States to press Syria on a humanitarian corridor, reigniting Israeli hard‑line demands and pushing the
Israeli airstrike on Syrian defence‑ministry headquarters in Damascus reignites tensions;
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%10%
analysts warn the security‑first demand will stall talks, causing the
The Jerusalem Post announces that Israel, Syria and the United States agree to set up a joint “fusion mechanism” for intelligence sharing and civilian cooperation, giving traders
June 30, 2026 jumps to 22%7%
The Jerusalem Post announces that Israel, Syria and the United States agree to set up a joint “fusion mechanism” for intelligence sharing and civilian cooperation, giving traders a brief lift
Israel conducts a large‑scale airstrike on Syria’s Defence Ministry headquarters in Damascus, killing 13 Syrians;
June 30, 2026 drops to 21%7%
President Trump later posts on Truth Social urging Israel to halt operations that could “interfere with Syria’s evolution”
Israel and Syria, under U.S. auspices, announce a joint “fusion mechanism” – a dedicated communication cell for intelligence sharing and de‑escalation – giving traders a brief
June 30, 2026 rises to 23%2%
Israel and Syria, under U.S. auspices, announce a joint “fusion mechanism” – a dedicated communication cell for intelligence sharing and de‑escalation – giving traders a brief optimism boost
Israel pushes for a humanitarian corridor to Sweida;
June 30, 2026 rises to 44%3%
Syria rejects, stalling progress and prompting a modest
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly states that any deal must include a demilitarised buffer zone, prompting Syrian officials to reiterate that Israeli troops must
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%3%
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly states that any deal must include a demilitarised buffer zone, prompting Syrian officials to reiterate that Israeli troops must withdraw before a diplomatic breakthrough
Syrian President al‑Sharaa publicly states that any “strategic” agreement with Israel is contingent on a full Israeli withdrawal to pre‑December 8 2024 borders, effectively
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%3%
Syrian President al‑Sharaa publicly states that any “strategic” agreement with Israel is contingent on a full Israeli withdrawal to pre‑December 8 2024 borders, effectively putting the diplomatic track on hold
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly demands a demilitarised buffer zone and insists Israel will not withdraw from the Golan Heights, prompting Syrian officials to reject
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%3%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly demands a demilitarised buffer zone and insists Israel will not withdraw from the Golan Heights, prompting Syrian officials to reject full diplomatic relations
Israeli troops conduct a cross‑border raid near Sweida, capturing weapons;
June 30, 2026 drops to 16%12%
Syrian officials condemn the operation and say “no diplomatic progress can be made while Israeli forces occupy Syrian territory”
Fifth round of Israel‑Syria talks in Paris ends with a U.S.
June 30, 2026 drops to 24%7%
proposal to freeze all Israeli military activity against Syria, but Syria rejects Israel’s demand for a humanitarian corridor
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly states that a full diplomatic deal is possible only if Syria creates a demilitarised buffer zone from Damascus to Jabal
December 31, 2026 dips to 22%1%
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly states that a full diplomatic deal is possible only if Syria creates a demilitarised buffer zone from Damascus to Jabal al‑Sheikh, raising doubts about a quick normalization
Israeli troops seize additional territory near the Golan Heights, prompting Syrian officials to warn that any progress is “impossible without a clear timeline for Israeli
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%4%
Israeli troops seize additional territory near the Golan Heights, prompting Syrian officials to warn that any progress is “impossible without a clear timeline for Israeli withdrawal,” dampening optimism
Syria rejects Israel’s demand for a humanitarian corridor to Sweida, calling it a “violation of sovereignty,” and says no progress can be made on “strategic files” without a clear
June 30, 2026 drops to 14%7%
Syria rejects Israel’s demand for a humanitarian corridor to Sweida, calling it a “violation of sovereignty,” and says no progress can be made on “strategic files” without a clear withdrawal timetable
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly demands a full diplomatic breakthrough and a demilitarised buffer zone, while Syrian officials reiterate that no formal
June 30, 2026 drops to 30%9%
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly demands a full diplomatic breakthrough and a demilitarised buffer zone, while Syrian officials reiterate that no formal relations will occur without Israeli withdrawal from seized Syrian territory
U.S. State Department releases joint statement on a “joint fusion mechanism,” but the text omits any timeline for troop withdrawal, leading analysts to view the deal as symbolic
June 30, 2026 dips to 14%3%
U.S. State Department releases joint statement on a “joint fusion mechanism,” but the text omits any timeline for troop withdrawal, leading analysts to view the deal as symbolic only
Israeli troops conduct a raid near the Golan Heights, killing 13 Syrians;
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%3%
Syrian Foreign Ministry condemns the action as a “serious violation,” pulling the
Israel conducts a large‑scale raid in southern Syria, killing 13 civilians in the town of Beit Jinn;
June 30, 2026 dips to 21%3%
Syrian Foreign Ministry condemns the strike as a “serious violation” and pauses all further talks
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al‑Shaibani tells Reuters that progress stalls without a clear timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal from areas seized after the December 2024
June 30, 2026 dips to 21%3%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al‑Shaibani tells Reuters that progress stalls without a clear timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal from areas seized after the December 2024 overthrow, underscoring a major obstacle to any peace deal
Reports emerge that Israel has shifted its demands, now insisting on full diplomatic relations—a demand Syria says “is not currently on the cards,” causing the market to slip
June 30, 2026 jumps to 22%8%
Reports emerge that Israel has shifted its demands, now insisting on full diplomatic relations—a demand Syria says “is not currently on the cards,” causing the market to slip further
Israel and Syria announce a joint “fusion mechanism” for intelligence sharing and commercial cooperation in Paris, but the statement notes that “Israel’s demand for a humanitarian
June 30, 2026 dips to 28%3%
Israel and Syria announce a joint “fusion mechanism” for intelligence sharing and commercial cooperation in Paris, but the statement notes that “Israel’s demand for a humanitarian corridor in Sweida remains unresolved,” dampening optimism
Israeli‑Syrian talks in Paris produce a joint “fusion mechanism” under U.S.
December 31, 2026 drops to 30%13%
supervision, raising hopes for a formal diplomatic channel
Israel, Syria and the United States announce a joint “fusion mechanism” – a dedicated communication cell for intelligence sharing, military de‑escalation and commercial
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%12%
Israel, Syria and the United States announce a joint “fusion mechanism” – a dedicated communication cell for intelligence sharing, military de‑escalation and commercial cooperation – under U.S. supervision
Al Jazeera reports that after the Syrian president’s White House visit, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s trip to occupied Syrian territory leads analysts to say a deal is “off
June 30, 2026 drops to 21%7%
Al Jazeera reports that after the Syrian president’s White House visit, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s trip to occupied Syrian territory leads analysts to say a deal is “off the table,” further dampening optimism
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits Israeli troops in the expanded buffer zone and reiterates that any deal must include a demilitarised corridor, prompting Syrian
June 30, 2026 dips to 28%4%
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits Israeli troops in the expanded buffer zone and reiterates that any deal must include a demilitarised corridor, prompting Syrian officials to condemn the move as a “fait‑accompli”
Paris talks conclude with Israel and Syria agreeing to a joint “fusion mechanism” under U.S.
June 30, 2026 surges to 39%24%
supervision; the statement emphasizes security coordination and commercial opportunities but makes no mention of formal diplomatic recognition
Israeli officials, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, shift demand from a security pact to full diplomatic relations, prompting Syrian officials to say the request “is not currently
June 30, 2026 drops to 30%9%
Israeli officials, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, shift demand from a security pact to full diplomatic relations, prompting Syrian officials to say the request “is not currently on the cards”
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and senior officials visit the Syrian “buffer zone” in the Golan Heights;
June 30, 2026 drops to 31%7%
Syrian foreign ministry condemns the move and reports talks have stalled
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz visits the “buffer zone” on Mount Hermon and declares the IDF will remain there, prompting Syrian officials to condemn the move and reports
June 30, 2026 drops to 28%10%
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz visits the “buffer zone” on Mount Hermon and declares the IDF will remain there, prompting Syrian officials to condemn the move and reports that talks have stalled
Syrian President al‑Sharaa publicly states that a security agreement is “advanced” but insists Israel must withdraw to pre‑December 8 borders before any diplomatic deal,
June 30, 2026 dips to 30%2%
Syrian President al‑Sharaa publicly states that a security agreement is “advanced” but insists Israel must withdraw to pre‑December 8 borders before any diplomatic deal, underscoring a major sticking point
Reports emerge that Israel has shifted its negotiating stance, now demanding full diplomatic relations rather than just security cooperation;
June 30, 2026 drops to 23%7%
Syrian officials publicly reject the demand, causing the first sharp trough in the market
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al‑Shaibani publicly demands a clear timetable for Israeli withdrawal from territories seized after December 2024, warning that without it “strategic
June 30, 2026 dips to 32%3%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al‑Shaibani publicly demands a clear timetable for Israeli withdrawal from territories seized after December 2024, warning that without it “strategic files” cannot move forward
Senior Israeli and Syrian officials hold a Paris meeting under U.S.
June 30, 2026 drops to 17%13%
auspices, but Syrian officials publicly reject Israel’s demand for a full diplomatic breakthrough, insisting the “buffer‑zone” issue remains unresolved
Senior Israeli and Syrian officials hold the first post‑war meeting in Paris, agreeing to create a standing “communication cell” for de‑escalation and commercial cooperation under
June 30, 2026 drops to 24%6%
Senior Israeli and Syrian officials hold the first post‑war meeting in Paris, agreeing to create a standing “communication cell” for de‑escalation and commercial cooperation under U.S. supervision
Israel and Syria announce a “joint fusion mechanism” for intelligence sharing and de‑escalation in Paris, but the statement stresses only a communication cell, not full diplomatic
June 30, 2026 drops to 24%6%
Israel and Syria announce a “joint fusion mechanism” for intelligence sharing and de‑escalation in Paris, but the statement stresses only a communication cell, not full diplomatic ties
Senior Israeli and Syrian officials hold a trilateral meeting in Paris and announce a “joint fusion mechanism” for intelligence sharing and de‑escalation, raising hopes for rapid
June 30, 2026 dips to 35%3%
Senior Israeli and Syrian officials hold a trilateral meeting in Paris and announce a “joint fusion mechanism” for intelligence sharing and de‑escalation, raising hopes for rapid progress
Senior Israeli and Syrian officials hold a first‑ever joint session in Paris, issuing a statement that the “communication cell” will coordinate security messages and explore
June 30, 2026 dips to 28%3%
Senior Israeli and Syrian officials hold a first‑ever joint session in Paris, issuing a statement that the “communication cell” will coordinate security messages and explore commercial opportunities
President Donald Trump meets Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa at the White House, signalling strong U.S.
June 30, 2026 drops to 38%12%
backing for Israel‑Syria talks
U.S. President Donald Trump meets al‑Sharaa at the White House;
June 30, 2026 plunges to 15%17%
both leaders stress “the need for a comprehensive peace deal,” but Israeli officials later demand full diplomatic relations – a demand Syria says is “not on the cards”
U.S. President Donald Trump holds a bilateral White House meeting with Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa, publicly pledging U.S.
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%11%
“strong and true dialogue” between Israel and Syria
President Donald Trump meets Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa at the White House, signalling strong U.S.
June 30, 2026 drops to 38%12%
backing for Israel‑Syria talks
President Donald Trump meets Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa at the White House, signalling U.S.
June 30, 2026 drops to 38%12%
backing for Israel‑Syria talks but raising expectations that the talks would be “high‑level”
President Donald Trump meets Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa at the White House, signalling strong U.S.
June 30, 2026 drops to 38%12%
backing for Israel‑Syria talks
U.S. President Donald Trump meets Syrian President al‑Sharaa at the White House, pledging U.S.
June 30, 2026 drops to 31%7%
“strong support” for Israel‑Syria dialogue; Israeli officials later demand full diplomatic recognition, a demand Syria rejects
U.S. President Donald Trump meets Syrian President al‑Sharaa at the White House, pledging U.S.
December 31, 2026 dips to 43%2%
“strong support” for Israel‑Syria talks and signalling a possible U.S.‑brokered deal
U.S. President Donald Trump meets Syrian President al‑Sharaa at the White House, confirming U.S.
December 31, 2026 dips to 43%3%
backing for Israel‑Syria talks and raising expectations of a diplomatic breakthrough
U.S. President Donald Trump meets President al‑Sharaa at the White House, publicly urging “full diplomatic relations” with Israel;
June 30, 2026 drops to 24%8%
Israel immediately responds by demanding a “full diplomatic relationship” as a pre‑condition, a demand Syria says it cannot accept
U.S. President Donald Trump meets President al‑Sharaa at the White House, announcing U.S.‑brokered talks and a “fusion mechanism” for intelligence sharing, but Israel’s parallel
June 30, 2026 plunges to 15%17%
U.S. President Donald Trump meets President al‑Sharaa at the White House, announcing U.S.‑brokered talks and a “fusion mechanism” for intelligence sharing, but Israel’s parallel demand for full diplomatic relations is reported as “not currently on the cards”
U.S. President Donald Trump meets Syrian President al‑Sharaa at the White House, and both leaders announce that “direct negotiations” with Israel are under way, sparking a
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%6%
U.S. President Donald Trump meets Syrian President al‑Sharaa at the White House, and both leaders announce that “direct negotiations” with Israel are under way, sparking a short‑term rally in normalization hopes
President Donald Trump meets Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa at the White House, signalling strong U.S.
June 30, 2026 drops to 38%12%
backing for Israel‑Syria talks
U.S. President Donald Trump meets Syrian President al‑Sharaa at the White House, publicly backing a U.S‑brokered “fusion mechanism” for intelligence sharing and commercial
December 31, 2026 dips to 43%2%
U.S. President Donald Trump meets Syrian President al‑Sharaa at the White House, publicly backing a U.S‑brokered “fusion mechanism” for intelligence sharing and commercial cooperation between Israel and Syria
U.S. President Donald Trump meets Syrian President al‑Sharaa at the White House, and the three sides announce a “joint fusion mechanism” for intelligence sharing and diplomatic
December 31, 2026 dips to 43%3%
U.S. President Donald Trump meets Syrian President al‑Sharaa at the White House, and the three sides announce a “joint fusion mechanism” for intelligence sharing and diplomatic engagement
U.S. President Donald Trump meets Syrian President al‑Sharaa at the White House, signalling strong U.S.
June 30, 2026 drops to 14%14%
backing for Israel‑Syria talks
U.S. President Donald Trump meets Syrian President al‑Sharaa at the White House, pledging “strong dialogue” with Israel and hinting that a formal peace framework could be ready by
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%6%
U.S. President Donald Trump meets Syrian President al‑Sharaa at the White House, pledging “strong dialogue” with Israel and hinting that a formal peace framework could be ready by early 2026
U.S. President Donald Trump meets President al‑Sharaa at the White House, pledging U.S.
June 30, 2026 drops to 31%7%
“full support” for Israel‑Syria talks and announcing a joint “fusion mechanism” for intelligence sharing and de‑escalation
U.S. President Donald Trump meets Syrian President al‑Sharaa at the White House, confirming U.S.
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%6%
backing for a “new page” in Israel‑Syria relations
U.S. President Donald Trump meets al‑Sharaa at the White House, pledging U.S.‑backed talks;
December 31, 2026 dips to 43%3%
the next day Israel confirms senior talks in Paris, sparking a modest
President Donald Trump meets Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa at the White House, signalling U.S.
June 30, 2026 drops to 38%12%
backing for a security‑and‑normalisation push
Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa attends the COP‑30 climate summit in Brazil, signalling his first high‑profile international appearance since taking office and hinting at
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa attends the COP‑30 climate summit in Brazil, signalling his first high‑profile international appearance since taking office and hinting at upcoming talks with Israel
Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa attends the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, where he publicly says “direct negotiations with Israel are under way” but stresses that “full
June 30, 2026 drops to 38%12%
Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa attends the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, where he publicly says “direct negotiations with Israel are under way” but stresses that “full diplomatic relations are not yet on the table”
Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa attends the COP‑30 climate summit in Brazil, where he publicly states that “direct negotiations with Israel are under way” and hints at a possible
December 31, 2026 drops to 45%6%
Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa attends the COP‑30 climate summit in Brazil, where he publicly states that “direct negotiations with Israel are under way” and hints at a possible diplomatic opening
Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa attends the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, where he and Israeli officials hold a first‑ever joint press briefing signalling the start of
December 31, 2026 drops to 45%6%
Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa attends the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, where he and Israeli officials hold a first‑ever joint press briefing signalling the start of “new‑page” talks
Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa attends the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, where he publicly states that “direct negotiations with Israel are under way” but stresses that a full
June 30, 2026 plunges to 32%18%
Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa attends the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, where he publicly states that “direct negotiations with Israel are under way” but stresses that a full diplomatic accord remains “far off”
Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa attends the COP30 UN Climate Conference in Brazil, signalling his first major international appearance since taking office and prompting optimism
June 30, 2026 drops to 38%12%
Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa attends the COP30 UN Climate Conference in Brazil, signalling his first major international appearance since taking office and prompting optimism that Damascus would seek broader diplomatic outreach, including to Israel
Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa attends the COP‑30 climate summit in Brazil and publicly announces that “direct negotiations with Israel are under way,” signalling the start of a
December 31, 2026 drops to 45%6%
Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa attends the COP‑30 climate summit in Brazil and publicly announces that “direct negotiations with Israel are under way,” signalling the start of a new diplomatic track
Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa attends the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, signalling the first high‑level Syrian‑Israeli contact in months and sparking optimism that talks were
December 31, 2026 drops to 45%6%
Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa attends the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, signalling the first high‑level Syrian‑Israeli contact in months and sparking optimism that talks were restarting
Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa attends the COP30 climate summit in Brazil and publicly states that “direct negotiations with Israel are under way,” signalling a fresh diplomatic
June 30, 2026 drops to 38%12%
Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa attends the COP30 climate summit in Brazil and publicly states that “direct negotiations with Israel are under way,” signalling a fresh diplomatic opening
Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa attends the COP30 climate conference in Brazil and issues a statement that “direct negotiations with Israel are ongoing,” yet stresses that Israel
June 30, 2026 dips to 28%4%
Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa attends the COP30 climate conference in Brazil and issues a statement that “direct negotiations with Israel are ongoing,” yet stresses that Israel must withdraw to pre‑December 8 borders before any agreement can be signed
Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa attends the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, where Israel and Syria issue a joint statement expressing “determination to turn a new page” in
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa attends the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, where Israel and Syria issue a joint statement expressing “determination to turn a new page” in relations
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al‑Shaibani meets an Israeli delegation in Paris to discuss “stability” and possible economic ties, marking the first senior‑level contact since the
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%6%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al‑Shaibani meets an Israeli delegation in Paris to discuss “stability” and possible economic ties, marking the first senior‑level contact since the 2024 invasion
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al‑Shaibani meets Israeli delegation in Paris to discuss stability in southern Syria, but talks are described as “preliminary” with no concrete
June 30, 2026 drops to 42%8%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al‑Shaibani meets Israeli delegation in Paris to discuss stability in southern Syria, but talks are described as “preliminary” with no concrete timeline for diplomatic ties
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions