Ongoing regional military tensions from the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian missile salvos, combined with Hezbollah rocket activity, continue to shape assessments of Israel's airspace security. Israeli authorities fully closed civilian operations in late February and maintained strict limits with only approved repatriation flights through March, yet partial reopenings at Ben Gurion Airport and European carrier announcements for gradual June service resumption have signaled stabilizing conditions. Traders are weighing any near-term escalation in missile threats or diplomatic signals against these operational recoveries as the May 31 resolution window approaches, with current market pricing reflecting tempered expectations for a major closure in the immediate term.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$908,070 Vol.
May 31, 2026
May 31
35%
June 30
53%
$908,070 Vol.
May 31
$402,893 Vol.
35%
June 30
$9,940 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional military tensions from the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian missile salvos, combined with Hezbollah rocket activity, continue to shape assessments of Israel's airspace security. Israeli authorities fully closed civilian operations in late February and maintained strict limits with only approved repatriation flights through March, yet partial reopenings at Ben Gurion Airport and European carrier announcements for gradual June service resumption have signaled stabilizing conditions. Traders are weighing any near-term escalation in missile threats or diplomatic signals against these operational recoveries as the May 31 resolution window approaches, with current market pricing reflecting tempered expectations for a major closure in the immediate term.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Volume
$908,070End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional military tensions from the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian missile salvos, combined with Hezbollah rocket activity, continue to shape assessments of Israel's airspace security. Israeli authorities fully closed civilian operations in late February and maintained strict limits with only approved repatriation flights through March, yet partial reopenings at Ben Gurion Airport and European carrier announcements for gradual June service resumption have signaled stabilizing conditions. Traders are weighing any near-term escalation in missile threats or diplomatic signals against these operational recoveries as the May 31 resolution window approaches, with current market pricing reflecting tempered expectations for a major closure in the immediate term.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$908,070End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing regional military tensions from the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian missile salvos, combined with Hezbollah rocket activity, continue to shape assessments of Israel's airspace security. Israeli authorities fully closed civilian operations in late February and maintained strict limits with only approved repatriation flights through March, yet partial reopenings at Ben Gurion Airport and European carrier announcements for gradual June service resumption have signaled stabilizing conditions. Traders are weighing any near-term escalation in missile threats or diplomatic signals against these operational recoveries as the May 31 resolution window approaches, with current market pricing reflecting tempered expectations for a major closure in the immediate term.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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