Israel and Lebanon extended their US-brokered ceasefire by 45 days on May 15, 2026, following productive talks in Washington that set the stage for further negotiations on June 2-3. The agreement addresses a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, border demarcation, prisoner releases, and reconstruction, yet Israel maintains troops in a self-declared security buffer zone several kilometers inside Lebanese territory to prevent Hezbollah rearmament. Recent airstrikes and displacement orders in southern Lebanon have heightened skepticism about rapid progress. UN Security Council Resolution 1701 implementation talks and the scheduled end of the UNIFIL mandate in December 2026 add further diplomatic pressure, while both sides weigh security guarantees against enforcement challenges from non-state actors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
$1,543,234 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
May 31
1%
June 30
8%
$1,543,234 Vol.
May 31
$1,237,290 Vol.
1%
June 30
$230,938 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel and Lebanon extended their US-brokered ceasefire by 45 days on May 15, 2026, following productive talks in Washington that set the stage for further negotiations on June 2-3. The agreement addresses a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, border demarcation, prisoner releases, and reconstruction, yet Israel maintains troops in a self-declared security buffer zone several kilometers inside Lebanese territory to prevent Hezbollah rearmament. Recent airstrikes and displacement orders in southern Lebanon have heightened skepticism about rapid progress. UN Security Council Resolution 1701 implementation talks and the scheduled end of the UNIFIL mandate in December 2026 add further diplomatic pressure, while both sides weigh security guarantees against enforcement challenges from non-state actors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$1,543,234End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel and Lebanon extended their US-brokered ceasefire by 45 days on May 15, 2026, following productive talks in Washington that set the stage for further negotiations on June 2-3. The agreement addresses a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, border demarcation, prisoner releases, and reconstruction, yet Israel maintains troops in a self-declared security buffer zone several kilometers inside Lebanese territory to prevent Hezbollah rearmament. Recent airstrikes and displacement orders in southern Lebanon have heightened skepticism about rapid progress. UN Security Council Resolution 1701 implementation talks and the scheduled end of the UNIFIL mandate in December 2026 add further diplomatic pressure, while both sides weigh security guarantees against enforcement challenges from non-state actors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$1,543,234End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel and Lebanon extended their US-brokered ceasefire by 45 days on May 15, 2026, following productive talks in Washington that set the stage for further negotiations on June 2-3. The agreement addresses a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, border demarcation, prisoner releases, and reconstruction, yet Israel maintains troops in a self-declared security buffer zone several kilometers inside Lebanese territory to prevent Hezbollah rearmament. Recent airstrikes and displacement orders in southern Lebanon have heightened skepticism about rapid progress. UN Security Council Resolution 1701 implementation talks and the scheduled end of the UNIFIL mandate in December 2026 add further diplomatic pressure, while both sides weigh security guarantees against enforcement challenges from non-state actors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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