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icon for Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?

Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?

icon for Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?

Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?

$1,116,649 Vol.

Aug 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,116,649 Vol.

Polymarket

August 31

$97,257 Vol.

3%

December 31

$284,791 Vol.

14%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli and Lebanese officials reached a US-brokered framework agreement in late June 2026 establishing pilot zones for phased Israeli withdrawals from select sites north and south of the Litani River, with the Lebanese Armed Forces assuming security responsibilities in those areas. This followed earlier May advances by Israeli forces across the river and new evacuation orders extending toward the Zahrani River amid the broader 2026 Lebanon conflict. Implementation depends on simultaneous Hezbollah redeployment north of the Litani, verified cessation of cross-border fire, and Lebanese army deployment timelines. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over enforcement of these commitments, the status of any 60-day transition periods, and risks of renewed clashes that could delay or derail the process.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$1,116,649
Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 12:03 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli and Lebanese officials reached a US-brokered framework agreement in late June 2026 establishing pilot zones for phased Israeli withdrawals from select sites north and south of the Litani River, with the Lebanese Armed Forces assuming security responsibilities in those areas. This followed earlier May advances by Israeli forces across the river and new evacuation orders extending toward the Zahrani River amid the broader 2026 Lebanon conflict. Implementation depends on simultaneous Hezbollah redeployment north of the Litani, verified cessation of cross-border fire, and Lebanese army deployment timelines. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over enforcement of these commitments, the status of any 60-day transition periods, and risks of renewed clashes that could delay or derail the process.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$1,116,649
Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 12:03 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 14%, followed by "August 31" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 14¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?" has generated $1.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?" is "December 31" at 14%, meaning the market assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "August 31" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.