**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and other meteorological sources project an overnight low of 76–77°F for Austin on August 28, 2026, under mostly clear skies with light southeast to southwest winds around 5 mph.** This aligns closely with the market’s dominant 87.5% implied probability for that bin, reflecting trader confidence in consensus model output and current conditions. A warm, stable air mass dominates central Texas amid an ongoing late-summer heat pattern, with daytime highs near 99°F and heat indices above 105°F. These elevated surface temperatures limit radiational cooling overnight, keeping minimums in the mid-70s rather than the long-term August average of roughly 72°F. Recent observations from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport show dew points near 70–73°F and minimal cloud cover, further suppressing temperature drops. No cold fronts or significant moisture advection are expected through the period, maintaining the current thermal profile. Lower-probability outcomes below 74°F would require an unforecasted surge of drier, cooler air or enhanced cloud cover to enhance cooling—scenarios not supported by the latest model runs. The tight clustering of probabilities around 76–77°F illustrates how real-time NWS guidance and surface observations anchor trader sentiment for this short-term temperature market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Austin on August 28?
76-77°F 93%
69°F or below 43%
72-73°F 14%
74-75°F 11%
$680 Vol.
$680 Vol.
Aug 28, 2026
69°F or below
43%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
14%
74-75°F
11%
76-77°F
87%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F or higher
<1%
76-77°F 93%
69°F or below 43%
72-73°F 14%
74-75°F 11%
$680 Vol.
$680 Vol.
Aug 28, 2026
69°F or below
$48 Vol.
43%
70-71°F
$11 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$84 Vol.
14%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
11%
76-77°F
$147 Vol.
87%
78-79°F
$94 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$66 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$63 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$56 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$55 Vol.
<1%
88°F or higher
$55 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and other meteorological sources project an overnight low of 76–77°F for Austin on August 28, 2026, under mostly clear skies with light southeast to southwest winds around 5 mph.** This aligns closely with the market’s dominant 87.5% implied probability for that bin, reflecting trader confidence in consensus model output and current conditions.
A warm, stable air mass dominates central Texas amid an ongoing late-summer heat pattern, with daytime highs near 99°F and heat indices above 105°F. These elevated surface temperatures limit radiational cooling overnight, keeping minimums in the mid-70s rather than the long-term August average of roughly 72°F. Recent observations from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport show dew points near 70–73°F and minimal cloud cover, further suppressing temperature drops. No cold fronts or significant moisture advection are expected through the period, maintaining the current thermal profile.
Lower-probability outcomes below 74°F would require an unforecasted surge of drier, cooler air or enhanced cloud cover to enhance cooling—scenarios not supported by the latest model runs. The tight clustering of probabilities around 76–77°F illustrates how real-time NWS guidance and surface observations anchor trader sentiment for this short-term temperature market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$680End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and other meteorological sources project an overnight low of 76–77°F for Austin on August 28, 2026, under mostly clear skies with light southeast to southwest winds around 5 mph.** This aligns closely with the market’s dominant 87.5% implied probability for that bin, reflecting trader confidence in consensus model output and current conditions.
A warm, stable air mass dominates central Texas amid an ongoing late-summer heat pattern, with daytime highs near 99°F and heat indices above 105°F. These elevated surface temperatures limit radiational cooling overnight, keeping minimums in the mid-70s rather than the long-term August average of roughly 72°F. Recent observations from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport show dew points near 70–73°F and minimal cloud cover, further suppressing temperature drops. No cold fronts or significant moisture advection are expected through the period, maintaining the current thermal profile.
Lower-probability outcomes below 74°F would require an unforecasted surge of drier, cooler air or enhanced cloud cover to enhance cooling—scenarios not supported by the latest model runs. The tight clustering of probabilities around 76–77°F illustrates how real-time NWS guidance and surface observations anchor trader sentiment for this short-term temperature market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$680End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and other meteorological sources project an overnight low of 76–77°F for Austin on August 28, 2026, under mostly clear skies with light southeast to southwest winds around 5 mph.** This aligns closely with the market’s dominant 87.5% implied probability for that bin, reflecting trader confidence in consensus model output and current conditions. A warm, stable air mass dominates central Texas amid an ongoing late-summer heat pattern, with daytime highs near 99°F and heat indices above 105°F. These elevated surface temperatures limit radiational cooling overnight, keeping minimums in the mid-70s rather than the long-term August average of roughly 72°F. Recent observations from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport show dew points near 70–73°F and minimal cloud cover, further suppressing temperature drops. No cold fronts or significant moisture advection are expected through the period, maintaining the current thermal profile. Lower-probability outcomes below 74°F would require an unforecasted surge of drier, cooler air or enhanced cloud cover to enhance cooling—scenarios not supported by the latest model runs. The tight clustering of probabilities around 76–77°F illustrates how real-time NWS guidance and surface observations anchor trader sentiment for this short-term temperature market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions