Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature in Beijing on August 29 of 18–19°C, following cooler, wetter conditions on August 27–28 that cleared skies and allowed greater nocturnal radiative cooling. Trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 18–19°C at roughly 46.5% each because ensemble guidance shows limited spread in overnight lows under light winds and moderate humidity after the frontal passage. Differentiation among nearby outcomes (17–22°C) stems from small variations in predicted dew points, wind speed, and boundary-layer mixing, which can alter minimum readings by 1–2°C. Historical August averages place typical overnight lows near 20–21°C, so current consensus reflects slightly enhanced cooling from recent precipitation without shifting into outlier territory. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on August 29?
14°C or below 57%
24°C or higher 57%
18°C 48%
19°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
14°C or below
57%
15°C
30%
16°C
46%
17°C
46%
18°C
48%
19°C
48%
20°C
44%
21°C
44%
22°C
2%
23°C
8%
24°C or higher
57%
14°C or below 57%
24°C or higher 57%
18°C 48%
19°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
57%
15°C
$0 Vol.
30%
16°C
$0 Vol.
46%
17°C
$0 Vol.
46%
18°C
$0 Vol.
48%
19°C
$0 Vol.
48%
20°C
$0 Vol.
44%
21°C
$0 Vol.
44%
22°C
$0 Vol.
2%
23°C
$0 Vol.
8%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
57%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature in Beijing on August 29 of 18–19°C, following cooler, wetter conditions on August 27–28 that cleared skies and allowed greater nocturnal radiative cooling. Trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 18–19°C at roughly 46.5% each because ensemble guidance shows limited spread in overnight lows under light winds and moderate humidity after the frontal passage. Differentiation among nearby outcomes (17–22°C) stems from small variations in predicted dew points, wind speed, and boundary-layer mixing, which can alter minimum readings by 1–2°C. Historical August averages place typical overnight lows near 20–21°C, so current consensus reflects slightly enhanced cooling from recent precipitation without shifting into outlier territory. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature in Beijing on August 29 of 18–19°C, following cooler, wetter conditions on August 27–28 that cleared skies and allowed greater nocturnal radiative cooling. Trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 18–19°C at roughly 46.5% each because ensemble guidance shows limited spread in overnight lows under light winds and moderate humidity after the frontal passage. Differentiation among nearby outcomes (17–22°C) stems from small variations in predicted dew points, wind speed, and boundary-layer mixing, which can alter minimum readings by 1–2°C. Historical August averages place typical overnight lows near 20–21°C, so current consensus reflects slightly enhanced cooling from recent precipitation without shifting into outlier territory. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature in Beijing on August 29 of 18–19°C, following cooler, wetter conditions on August 27–28 that cleared skies and allowed greater nocturnal radiative cooling. Trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 18–19°C at roughly 46.5% each because ensemble guidance shows limited spread in overnight lows under light winds and moderate humidity after the frontal passage. Differentiation among nearby outcomes (17–22°C) stems from small variations in predicted dew points, wind speed, and boundary-layer mixing, which can alter minimum readings by 1–2°C. Historical August averages place typical overnight lows near 20–21°C, so current consensus reflects slightly enhanced cooling from recent precipitation without shifting into outlier territory. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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