Recent Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and supporting model runs indicate a minimum temperature near 26°C for August 31 amid unsettled conditions from a broad low-pressure trough over the South China Sea, which is driving frequent showers, thunderstorms, and elevated humidity that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. This aligns with late-August climatological norms of 26–27°C while accounting for the trough’s steering of easterly to northeasterly winds, which may modestly enhance mixing. Market-implied odds cluster on 25–27°C because these values match the consensus range from official guidance and recent observations showing overnight lows consistently in that band; cooler or warmer outliers remain lower-probability given the absence of strong cold advection or clear-sky extremes. Updated model runs ahead of the date could shift probabilities if rain timing or wind changes alter boundary-layer conditions.