Numerical weather prediction models from the Hong Kong Observatory currently converge on a minimum temperature of 23°C for May 17 under a stable subtropical high-pressure system that favors clear skies and gradual overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with May climatology where average lows hover near 25°C, though the present weak monsoon trough has produced a modest cool anomaly. Traders have priced the 23°C outcome at essentially 100% implied probability because official observations and ensemble guidance show little variance within the final hours before daily resolution. A realistic shift would require unexpected increases in low-level moisture, stronger southerly flow, or revisions in the evening forecast update that push readings one degree higher or lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 17?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 17?
23°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
28°C or higher <1%
19°C <1%
$28,202 Vol.
$28,202 Vol.
May 17, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
100%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
23°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
28°C or higher <1%
19°C <1%
$28,202 Vol.
$28,202 Vol.
May 17, 2026
18°C or below
$1,261 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,089 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$672 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,800 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$2,815 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$6,393 Vol.
100%
24°C
$7,733 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$2,338 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,117 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$795 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$2,200 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Numerical weather prediction models from the Hong Kong Observatory currently converge on a minimum temperature of 23°C for May 17 under a stable subtropical high-pressure system that favors clear skies and gradual overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with May climatology where average lows hover near 25°C, though the present weak monsoon trough has produced a modest cool anomaly. Traders have priced the 23°C outcome at essentially 100% implied probability because official observations and ensemble guidance show little variance within the final hours before daily resolution. A realistic shift would require unexpected increases in low-level moisture, stronger southerly flow, or revisions in the evening forecast update that push readings one degree higher or lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Volume
$28,202End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Numerical weather prediction models from the Hong Kong Observatory currently converge on a minimum temperature of 23°C for May 17 under a stable subtropical high-pressure system that favors clear skies and gradual overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with May climatology where average lows hover near 25°C, though the present weak monsoon trough has produced a modest cool anomaly. Traders have priced the 23°C outcome at essentially 100% implied probability because official observations and ensemble guidance show little variance within the final hours before daily resolution. A realistic shift would require unexpected increases in low-level moisture, stronger southerly flow, or revisions in the evening forecast update that push readings one degree higher or lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$28,202End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETNumerical weather prediction models from the Hong Kong Observatory currently converge on a minimum temperature of 23°C for May 17 under a stable subtropical high-pressure system that favors clear skies and gradual overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with May climatology where average lows hover near 25°C, though the present weak monsoon trough has produced a modest cool anomaly. Traders have priced the 23°C outcome at essentially 100% implied probability because official observations and ensemble guidance show little variance within the final hours before daily resolution. A realistic shift would require unexpected increases in low-level moisture, stronger southerly flow, or revisions in the evening forecast update that push readings one degree higher or lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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