Persistent southwest monsoon flow over Luzon, with active convection and extensive cloud cover, is the main driver keeping Manila's overnight minimums elevated near 26–28 °C. Latest model consensus and official PAGASA guidance show widespread showers and thunderstorms through 31 August, limiting radiative cooling and holding dew points in the mid-20s °C. Historical August climatology at the Science Garden station places typical lows at 24–26 °C, so current wet, windy conditions favor outcomes clustered around 25–27 °C. Traders assign roughly equal weight to these three bins because small forecast shifts in rainfall timing or wind speed could nudge the actual minimum across those thresholds; resolution hinges on the official 24-hour minimum recorded at the PAGASA station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Manila on August 31?
21°C or below 95%
25°C 50%
24°C 49%
28°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
21°C or below
95%
22°C
18%
23°C
47%
24°C
49%
25°C
50%
26°C
28%
27°C
27%
28°C
49%
29°C
49%
30°C
49%
31°C or higher
2%
21°C or below 95%
25°C 50%
24°C 49%
28°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
95%
22°C
$0 Vol.
18%
23°C
$0 Vol.
47%
24°C
$0 Vol.
49%
25°C
$0 Vol.
50%
26°C
$0 Vol.
28%
27°C
$0 Vol.
27%
28°C
$0 Vol.
49%
29°C
$0 Vol.
49%
30°C
$0 Vol.
49%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon flow over Luzon, with active convection and extensive cloud cover, is the main driver keeping Manila's overnight minimums elevated near 26–28 °C. Latest model consensus and official PAGASA guidance show widespread showers and thunderstorms through 31 August, limiting radiative cooling and holding dew points in the mid-20s °C. Historical August climatology at the Science Garden station places typical lows at 24–26 °C, so current wet, windy conditions favor outcomes clustered around 25–27 °C. Traders assign roughly equal weight to these three bins because small forecast shifts in rainfall timing or wind speed could nudge the actual minimum across those thresholds; resolution hinges on the official 24-hour minimum recorded at the PAGASA station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon flow over Luzon, with active convection and extensive cloud cover, is the main driver keeping Manila's overnight minimums elevated near 26–28 °C. Latest model consensus and official PAGASA guidance show widespread showers and thunderstorms through 31 August, limiting radiative cooling and holding dew points in the mid-20s °C. Historical August climatology at the Science Garden station places typical lows at 24–26 °C, so current wet, windy conditions favor outcomes clustered around 25–27 °C. Traders assign roughly equal weight to these three bins because small forecast shifts in rainfall timing or wind speed could nudge the actual minimum across those thresholds; resolution hinges on the official 24-hour minimum recorded at the PAGASA station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon flow over Luzon, with active convection and extensive cloud cover, is the main driver keeping Manila's overnight minimums elevated near 26–28 °C. Latest model consensus and official PAGASA guidance show widespread showers and thunderstorms through 31 August, limiting radiative cooling and holding dew points in the mid-20s °C. Historical August climatology at the Science Garden station places typical lows at 24–26 °C, so current wet, windy conditions favor outcomes clustered around 25–27 °C. Traders assign roughly equal weight to these three bins because small forecast shifts in rainfall timing or wind speed could nudge the actual minimum across those thresholds; resolution hinges on the official 24-hour minimum recorded at the PAGASA station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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